For the past three years and more, Iran’s nuclear program has been the subject of much debate in international forums. This subject gained international attention mainly because Iran only admitted to having a nuclear program after western intelligence discovered the secret nuclear sites. This action of secrecy on the Iranian’s part prompted the international community to think that Iran was hiding something from them.
The western nations have accused Iran of having a nuclear program for the purpose of creating nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been talking to Iran about their nuclear program. The IAEA says that Iran is not allowing it access to a key site where they believe military activity relating to the nuclear site has been conducted. Furthermore the IAEA is reporting that satellite photos are showing that Iran is cleaning the site to hide evidence before the IAEA is allowed in.
Diplomatic talks conducted with Iran have stalled, although further talks are scheduled for a later date. The United Nations (U.N) has imposed stiff sanctions on Iran for not cooperating fully with the IAEA in their efforts to fully understand the nation and intentions of their nuclear program. In response to the sanctions, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow passage in the Persian Gulf where a large percentage of the world’s oil must transit. The U.S has responded to these threats by sending two air craft carriers to the region. In a few days time the U.S and their allies will be conducting a military exercise aimed at clearing the Strait in case it is blocked by Iran.
The United States and Israel have stated publicly that under no circumstance will they allow Iran to become a nuclear state. The recent weeks the Israeli Prime Minister has been ratcheting up the rhetoric about a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran has also been declaring that if it is attacked none of Israel will be left and that it will attack U.S military bases in the Persian Gulf.
The U.S is trying to persuade Israel not to act alone in this matter. President Obama wants to allow more time for the sanctions and diplomacy to work. The President may not want to act until the presidential elections in the U.S are over.
I do not believe that Israel will opt to take on Iran alone. They know that they cannot deal with the situation comprehensively. I think the Israelis want to bluff the Iranians into expecting an Israeli attack thus diverting their attention from the real possibility of a full scale attack by the U.S and NATO or an impending Cyber attack.
Iran may have between now and February 2013 to comply with the IAEA to allow site visits and to comply with demands of the international community. If Iran gives in to these demands, the leadership of the country will lose face. This will probably embolden the opposition inside Iran to start an uprising similar to the one ongoing in Syria. If Iran refuses, its future as a potential nuclear power and as a leading nation in the Islamic world will forever be destroyed.
The attack on Iran will be quick, ferocious and crippling. The attacks will come wave after wave and from multiple directions. Attacks will be conducted from the air as well as from the sea and probably from land as Special Forces already in Iran, perform their planned roles. American and NATO war planes will totally destroy all the nuclear facilities. They will destroy their surface to air missiles, short and long range missile sites, military planes, air fields, radar communications. Tomahawk missiles fired from submarines and ships in the Gulf will help level every military establishment in the country. The Iranians will be completely overwhelmed. There will be panic and confusion in the military.
We will see the F22 Raptor fighter plane in action for the first. Other technologies will be tested. The U.S will have a chance to see how well its missile defense shield works in a real war situation. America and its allies will not stop at the destruction of the nuclear sites; they will set out to change the balance of power in the Middle East.
In the event of an attack, Iran may attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Their ships and submarines will be quickly eliminated. They will end with no pride left. The government of Iran will be forced to accept whatever terms the international community enforces on them.
The paltry response that Iran will be able to muster will not be enough to hurt Israel or the attacking force. Hezbollah will attack Israel and they will be dealt with decisively this time around. Iran having been knocked out militarily, Syria in the throes of a civil war, Hezbollah will be on its own, their source of supplies being cut off. Hezbollah will suffer a fatal blow to their military machinery by the Israelis.
The Allied forces will not make the same mistake this time as they did in Iraq and Afghanistan. This will not be a protracted war but it will be very effective militarily.
Objection to the military strike will be strong in some places. However, many of the Arab nations will be in favor of the strike. To keep dissent to a minimum, the allies will have to ensure that civilian deaths are at a minimum, that Israel does not participate, that the war ends quickly and that Iran is not occupied.
This could be a time of great instability for the Middle East. A critical diplomatic balance would have to be pursued to set the stage for a return to relative peace in that region.
War with Iran may be inevitable if the Iranians do not give in to international demands for more transparency and curtailment of some aspects of their nuclear program. A war with Iran would most likely force them into compliance with the demands of the international community. It may, however, cause increased hatred, suspicion and aggression toward the west on the part of the Islamic world.
