Population Theory
Man has been concerned with population problems since ancient times. From antiquity, statesmen and thinkers have held opinions, based on political, military, social and economic considerations, about such issues as the most desirable number of people or the need to stimulate or retard population growth. While these ideas were formulated with a view to public policy and only in exceptional cases went beyond mere speculation or incidental observations, the thoughts expressed foreshadowed many of the issues which would make their reappearance in modern population theory emerged until the modern period.
While these early writings merit attention in that they anticipate aspects of the more formal population theory that was to develop later, modern population theory is generally considered to have its beginnings in the late eighteenth century writings of Malthus. His work stimulated interest in population and the economic and social issues associated with it, and pushed the subject into prominence for the first time. Malthus’s work created controversy and that controversy spurred further investigation into demographic problems and stimulated continuing development in methods of observation and analysis.
Social Sciences Theories on Population
As in the social sciences in general, ideals and theories on population have nearly always revolved round the real or supposed problems of individual societies and have stimulated the most response when directed specifically towards those problems. Thus the ideas of the philosophers of ancient Greece dealt mainly with the population questions faced by the city-state with a relatively small population. In the Roman Empire the views on population reflected the populationist outlook of a society in which population was considered a source of power. At the dawn of the modern era, the emergence of the nation states and the related issue of power led mercantilist writers to emphasize once again the advantages, both political and economic, of a large population. Malthus’s theory had its roots in political, economic and social issues which existed during his time.
The same can be said of Marxist views on population. While other approaches to population theory-mathematical, biological, sociological-were formulated later, reflecting some of the major contemporary interests, more recent developments in population theories have been influenced predominantly by two factors. The first of these was the upsurge of population growth, especially in the developing countries. Unprecedented in earliest history, this fact has created a need for a better understanding of the factors in population growth. Secondly, the nearly universal preoccupation with the problems of development called for a considerably more penetrating theoretical framework for assessing the interrelations between population and economic and social development. In this context, the search for an acceptable population theory has gained importance, not only because it would provide a better insight into the development process, but also because such a theory would constitute a basic element in development policy-making and planning.
Ancient and mediaeval writings on population
Germs of certain ideas which have figured prominently in recent theoretical works population can be found in ancient writings. The thesis that excessive population growth may reduce output per worker, depress levels of living for the masses and engender strife is of great antiquity. It appears in the works of Confucius and his school, as well as in the works of other ancient Chinese philosophers. Some of these writings suggest that the authors had some concept of optimum population, as far as the population engaged in agriculture was concerned. Postulating an idea proportion between land and population, they held the government primarily responsible for maintaining such a proportion by moving people from over-populated to under-populated areas, although noting also that government action was reinforced at times by spontaneous migration.
Chinese Writers
The ancient Chinese writers also paid some attention to another aspect which has occupied an important place in subsequent literature on population theory, that is, the checks to population growth. They observed that mortality increases when food supply is insufficient, that premature marriage makes for high infant mortality rates, that war checks population growth and that costly marriage ceremonies reduce the marriage rates, although they little attention to the manner in which numbers adjusted to resources.
Despite these views of population and resources, the doctrines of Confucius regarding family, marriage and procreation were essentially favorable to population increase.
The writers of early Greece were more concerned with the formulation of policies and rules for population than with theories about it.
