In his 14th year on the ballot, Jack Morris secured 67.7% of the vote. It was the most votes he’s gotten since first appearing on the ballot in 2000 and getting 22.2% of the vote. He’s steadily increased his vote percentage over the years, finally getting past 30% in 2005, 40% in 2007, 50% in 2010, and 60% in 2012.
The 2014 Hall of Fame ballot will be Jack Morris’ last year on the ballot and his last chance to be voted in. Lets take a look at his qualifications to see how much he deserves Hall of Fame consideration. The following are his career numbers.
Jack Morris finished in the top five of Cy Young voting 5 times but never won and he appeared in 5 All Star games. He’s also quite famous for his playoff pitching performances, most notably his 10 inning shutout in game 7 of the 1991 World Series.
His career numbers don’t really stand out when you compare to most other Hall of Famers. His 254 career wins are more than acceptable for the Hall of Fame, but he’s not the member of an exclusive club (such as the 300 win club). His 3.90 career ERA is dangerously close to 4.00 and doesn’t necessarily scream Hall of Famer. His 105 ERA+ (which measures ERA relative to the rest of the league) shows that he was marginally above average throughout his career.
The following are the starting pitchers that have been elected to the Hall of Fame since 1980. (I don’t include Dennis Eckersley, as he pitched half his career as a reliever.)
Bert Blyleven: 287-250 W-L, 3.31 ERA, 3701 K, 118 ERA+, 90.7 WAR
Steve Carlton: 329-244 W-L, 3.22 ERA, 4136 K, 115 ERA+, 78.6 WAR
Don Drysdale: 209-166 W-L, 2.95 ERA, 2486 K, 121 ERA+, 57.4 WAR
Bob Gibson: 251-174 W-L, 2.91 ERA, 3117 K, 127 ERA+, 77.5 WAR Catfish Hunter: 224-166 W-L, 3.26 ERA, 2012 K, 104 ERA+, 32.1 WAR
Fergie Jenkins: 284-225 W-L, 3.34 ERA, 3192 K, 115 ERA+, 77.4 WAR
Juan Marichal: 243-142 W-L, 2.89 ERA, 2303 K, 123 ERA+, 58.2 WAR
Phil Niekro: 318-274 W-L, 3.35 ERA, 3342 K, 115 ERA+, 91.7 WAR Jim Palmer: 268-152 W-L, 2.86 ERA, 2212 K, 125 ERA+, 63.2 WAR
Gaylord Perry: 314-265 W-L, 3.11 ERA, 3534 K, 117 ERA+, 87.5 WAR Nolan Ryan: 324-292 W-L, 3.19 ERA, 5714 K, 112 ERA+, 77.4 WAR
Don Sutton: 324-256 W-L, 3.25 ERA, 3574 K, 108 ERA+, 62.9 WAR
Tom Seaver: 311-205 W-L, 2.86 ERA, 3640 K, 127 ERA+, 101.1 WAR
If Jack Morris were elected to the Hall of Fame, he’d have the worst career ERA of any pitcher elected since 1980. He’d have a middle of the pack win total (beating out Drysdale, Gibson, Hunter, and Marichal) and middle of the pack strikeout total (beating out Hunter, Marichal, and Palmer) amongst this group. His ERA+ and WAR would be the second worst behind Catfish Hunter.
The major difference between Jack Morris and a number of these Hall of Famers appears to be peak performance. Lets take a look at the Don Drysdale (the player with the lowest number of wins), Catfish Hunter (the player with the lowest ERA+ and WAR), Juan Marichal (never won a Cy Young award) and Bert Blyleven (never won a Cy Young award).
Don Drysdale appeared in 8 All Star games and won a Cy Young in 1962. He had a WAR over 5.0 six times in his career and had a WAR over 6.0 twice.
Catfish Hunter appeared in 8 All Star games, won a Cy Young award in 1974, and four times was voted into the top 4 of Cy Young voting. He had a WAR over 5.0 three times in his career and had a WAR over 6.0 twice.
Juan Marichal appeared in 9 All Star games but never placed in Cy Young voting. He had a WAR over 6.0 five times in his career and had a WAR over 7.0 four times.
Bert Blyleven only appeared in 2 All Star games and three times placed in the top 4 of Cy Young voting. He had a WAR over 5.0 eight times in his career and eclipsed a WAR of 6.0 four times.
Jack Morris appeared in 5 All Star games and five times placed in the top 5 of Cy Young voting. He had a WAR above 5.0 only once in his career.
So even amongst the lower tiered members of the pitchers, Jack Morris doesn’t have the credentials to match up with them in many ways.
After looking at these numbers, I just don’t see the case for Jack Morris being in the Hall of Fame. In fact, after going through this analysis, I’m a little surprised he’s been able to secure as high as 67.7% of the vote. His reputation during his career and his famous World Series performance must precede him.
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