The 2013 Baseball Hall of Fame balloting was quite disappointing. For the first time since 1996, no players were elected into the Hall of Fame.
Many writers have spoken on the difficulty of voting for the Hall of Fame given the limit of voting for 10 players. It won’t get any easier in 2014, as five quality Hall of Fame candidates will be added to the ballot. Lets take a look at the first year eligible players that have a strong shot of entering the Hall of Fame in 2014.
Greg Maddux
Of the first year eligible players in 2014, Greg Maddux is the player that most appears to be a lock. Statistically he’s a legend. He has the fifth most victories in the modern era (355), four Cy Young awards, made 10 All Star teams, and he owns the most Gold Gloves of any player in history (18). At one point, Greg Maddux won 15 games or more for 17 consecutive seasons, also a record.
2014 Prediction: I predict the voters will vote Greg Maddux into the Hall of Fame in 2014. Unlike Roger Clemens, he has no connections to PEDs and unlike Barry Bonds, he was generally well liked amongst writers.
Tom Glavine
Tom Glavine’s eligibility is just a notch below that of Greg Maddux’s but still stunning. He won two Cy Young awards, is a member of the 300 win club (305 career wins), and made 10 All Star teams.
2014 Prediction: I predict the voters will also vote in Tom Glavine in 2014. If Greg Maddux hadn’t been on this ballot, I might think otherwise. There is a historical and emotional link with Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux. Many fans and writers connect the two together as anchoring one of the greatest pitching staffs in baseball history, so many will want to see Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux inducted together. The only thing that might hold Tom Glavine back is the fact Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens may take away “pitcher votes”.
Frank Thomas
Frank Thomas was nicknamed the “Big Hurt” during his career, and it was for good reason. He finished his career with a .301 BA, 521 home runs (18th all time), and an amazing .974 OPS (14th all time). He won two MVP awards in 1993 and 1994 and made five All Star teams.
2014 Prediction: I don’t think Frank Thomas will be voted in 2014. With so many eligible slugging candidates returning on the 2013 ballot (Jeff Bagwell, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Edgar Martinez, Sammy Sosa, Fred McGriff, Mike Piazza), it’s very likely Frank Thomas will be lost in the voting. Unfortunately, despite never having any connections to PEDs, he will likely be connected to the PED era just like Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza are.
Jeff Kent might be the best hitting second baseman of all time. He hit 377 carrer home runs and finished his career with a .855 OPS. Compare that to recent inductees Ryne Sandberg (.795 OPS) and (.814 OPS). He won an MVP award in 2000 and made five All Star teams.
2014 Prediction: Just like Frank Thomas, I think Jeff Kent will fall short in 2014. Despite no connections to PEDs, there are too many sluggers on the ballot and Jeff Kent will be lost in the mix. His candidancy is also a tad weaker than second basemen Craig Biggio. So if a second basemen in getting votes in 2014, it’ll likely be Craig Biggio.
Mike Mussina
At first thought, Mike Mussina doesn’t sound like a Hall of Famer, but his career numbers beg to differ. He won 270 games, was a five time All Star, and six time Gold Glove winner. He has a career WAR of 78.1, which is actually higher than that of Tom Glavine (69.3). Mike Mussina’s Hall of Fame candidacy will always be hurt by the fact that he never won a Cy Young award and was never viewed as one of the elite pitchers in baseball. Nine times in his career he was voted into the top six of Cy Young voting, but never was close to winning it (peaking with a runner up once in 1999).
2014 Prediction: I think Mike Mussina will fall short in 2014. It will take time for voters to collectively figure out Mike Mussina’s Hall of Fame chances. With three other high profile pitchers on the 2014 ballot (Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens), he will be lost in the mix.
Other Reading
Looking Ahead to 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame First Year Eligible Players
Looking Ahead to 2016 Baseball Hall of Fame First Year Eligible Players
Looking Ahead to 2017 Baseball Hall of Fame First Year Eligible Players
Sources:
“Baseball-Reference.com – 2014 Potential Hall of Fame Ballot”, Baseball-Reference
Baseball-Reference.com – Major League Baseball Statistics and History”, Baseball-Reference
