The New England Patriots may be going into the Superbowl unbeaten, but against the spread, they are only 10-8, (including the playoffs). The point spread is a way bookmakers handicap the favorite by predicting the number of points they will win the given game by, thus insuring they will get action (wagers) on both teams. It is standard for point spread bets in most sports that you wager $110 to win $100. (In my case I insert a decimal point, $1.10 to win a dollar)
If you wanted to bet New England to win straight up against the Chargers, (no point spread) you would have to bet the money line (ML) where you would have had to wager $700 to win $100, and in my case I don’t have that kind of money to bet 7 dollars just to win one dollar. I discussed the money line and its usefulness in betting an underdog in a previous article Betting The Three Team Round Robin Parlay
I’m just focusing here on the point spread. To illustrate this more in depth, let’s look at the AFC Championship game line movement, (fig. 2) between the Patriots, and the San Diego Chargers. New England was favored by 14 points. However the line opened at 16 when it was set by bookmakers a week before the game. What happened that it was adjusted over the week to 14? Simple, the only way a bookie makes money on a proposition (game) is by having an equal number of wagers on both sides. Bettors jumped on the Chargers, so the line was lowered to get more wagers on the Pats. (Even with injuries to San Diego’s QB, [who played anyway] and RB Tomlinson, the line went down.) So, in order to win betting the Patriots at -14, the Pats would have had to beat the Chargers by 15 points. If they would have won by the 14 points, it would be a push, (tie) and you would have gotten your money back on a straight bet, and a parlay would be reduced to the remaining number of teams wagered on the ticket, making a 3-team parlay into a 2-team parlay, and a 2-team parlay a straight bet.
Incidentally, I bet on the AFC Championship for one leg of a 2-team parlay, (see Betting Ticket photo) and took San Diego and +14 points (whatever the favorite gives, the underdog gets). I was certain the Patriots would win, but I figured they would not cover the spread given the dynamics of a championship game. So for me, the game started with SD ahead by 14 points, the final score was San Diego 12, New England 21, but I got to add 14 points to the Chargers’ score making the final SD 26, NE 21, (or conversely, SD 12, NE 7, however you want to look at it I won by 5 points) To put it simply, there will be a minus sign before the number if the team is favored, and that is number of points to deduct from that teams final score. If there is a plus sign (+) that team is the underdog, and you will add that number to the teams final score. One or the other, you don’t get to do add to your team, then go and subtract from the other, or vice versa.
To analyze this further, I recognized, (and capitalized) on a betting trend you won’t find advertised by betting touts and analysts. Betting trends are looking at what a particular team has done in the past to predict the future. For the most part they are compilations of statistics as to how a particular team performs after certain games, such as, how they do after coming off a road win, (or loss) a home win, (or loss) a day game, (or night) even how a team plays in certain weather conditions and temperatures, etc, etc, ad nauseum – – The better portion of these stats, (in my opinion) are only good for trivia. But I look for hidden trends that I can cash in on.
Here’s the ATS (against the spread) trend I found (refer photo 3, New England team page). If you look at the ATS stats for the season, note that the Patriots covered (won) their first 8 games ATS in the first half of the season. They were blowing teams out of the stadium(s). After that, the points they had to cover went up severely, and of the last 8 games in the season they only beat the spread twice. So what did that mean to me? It meant that thanks to the bookmakers themselves, and the betting public, and the fever generated by a monster team, the bookmakers handicapped the Patriots above and beyond what they could realistically handle against teams determined to stop their perfect season. I congratulate them on their perfect season, just not against the spread.
Looking at the second leg (wager) of my parlay ticket, I bet the total score on the NFC Championship between the Packers and Giants. The total set on the combined score of the two teams was 41. I bet the over, and after the game was a 20 to 20 tie, there was no way I could lose. Even if only a safety were scored (2 points) during overtime, it would’ve brought the total to 42. The Giants’ field goal in overtime gave me a total score of 43, and a win.
The Superbowl line has opened with New England favored by 14, with a combined score total of 55 (perhaps a bit high, I expect this number to drop also). I’ll take those 14 points and bet on the late phenomenon of Eli Manning and the New York Giants, (and parlay that to the under). I may even put them on the money line where a Giants’ straight up win will return 3 1/2 to 1, yea money! (Money lines move too. It’s like the stock market.)
But seriously – – take the points. I look for the Patriots to win in a close one. The line has already moved and will drop fast as money comes in on the Giants. By gameday I expect it to drop to 10 points, or less. The line could even flip flop making an underdog the favorite, but I doubt it for this one. Destiny awaits the Patriots.
