In 2012, 33 senate races will be contested. Some look like landslides, some look closer. Among the tightest is the Senate race in Montana, which pits Democrat Jon Tester against a Republican, presumably Denny Rehberg.
Montana’s politics
In elections for President, Montana has tended Republican. McCain won the state in 2008, beating Obama 49-47; in 2004, Bush beat 59-39 and in 2000, Bush beat Gore, 58-33. Recent polls show Romney beating Obama fairly easily. That, combined with the fact that there are only 3 electoral votes at stake, may mean that Montana sees relatively little presidential campaigning.
Statewide, Montana’s two senators are both Democrats: Jon Tester, who is running for reelection and Max Baucus. Its governor, Brian Schweitzer, is also a Democrat. Montana’s only representative in the House is a Republican, Denny Rehberg, who is now running against Tester.
The Montana Senate race
Jon Tester is running for reelection. Althugh 2 Republicans are running to face him in November, the huge favorite is Denny Rehberg.
Jon Tester: The Democratic candidate for senate from Montana:
Jon Tester was elected in 2006, beating incumbent Conrad Burns 49-48.
He supports a woman’s right to choose, he opposes gay marriage but does not favor an amendment to the constitution about that. In 2006, he said that the energy policy was written by oil companies; Tester believes in global warming and supports some efforts to contain it. He favors additional funds for education. He has said that he wants to repeal the Patriot Act. On the Issues rates Jon Tester as liberal on economic issues and moderately liberal on social ones.
Denny Rehberg: The Republican candidate for senate from Montana
Denny Rehberg is the current representative for Montana’s single seat in the House. He is one of the wealthiest members of congress
Rehberg opposes a woman’s right to choose and opposes stem cell research. He opposed the economic recovery package and TARP. Rehberg voted for an amendment to the Constitution banning same sex marriage, and opposes enforcing anti-gay hate crimes. He has opposed efforts to control greenhouse gasses and favors building many new nuclear plants. Rehberg got a 0 (out of 100) rating from the League of Conservation voters and an 11/100 rating from the.American Public Health Association. On the Issues rates him as very conservative on social and economic issues.
The polls
Most recent polls of the Montana show a very close race, but one recent poll by Rasmussen shows a big lead for Rehberg. June 19: A new Rasmussen poll has a much smaller lead for Rehberg: 49-47.
Aug 22 – Another Rasmussen poll has Rehberg up by 4, 47-43.
Sept 13 – PPP has Tester up by 2
Sep 23 – Mason Dixon has Rehberg up by 3
Sep 29 – Global Strategies has Tester up by 2
Oct 11 – PPP has Tester ahead by 2
Oct 17 – Rasmussen has it tied at 48; PPP has Tester by 2
Oct 30 – Pharos Research has Tester up by 1
Nov 3 – Rasmussen has Tester by 1
Nov 5 – Mason Dixon has Rehberg by 4; PPP has Tester by 2
Nov 6 – Garin Hart Young has Tester by 1
Fundraising
Jon Tester has raised about $7.5 million, Denny Rehberg about $4.5 million.
July 16 – For the quarter, Rehberg raised $1.1 million and Tester raised $1.9 million
Oct 4 – For the quarter, Tester raised $2.3 million and has $1.3 million COH
