In 2012, 33 senate races will be contested. Some look like landslides, some look closer. Among the tightest is the Senate race in Missouri, which pits Democrat Claire McCaskill vs. a Republican to be named later
Missouri
In elections for President, Missouri has tended Republican. McCain won the state in 2008, but only by 3,903 votes out of almost 3,000,000 cast. Bush beat Kerry 53-46 and Bush beat Gore 50-47. Most polls show Romney beating Obama, but not by huge amounts, so Missouri is likely to see ads and visits at the Presidential level
Statewide, Missouri’s two senators include one Democrat: Claire McCaskill, who is running for reelection and one Republican: Roy Blunt. Its governor, Jay Nixon, is a Democrat. Six of Missouri’s 9 representatives in the House are Republican.
The Missouri Senate race
Claire McCaskill is running for reelection. She does have a primary challenger (Sam Lipari) but is unlikely to lose there. The Republican is Todd Akin, who won the primary on Aug 7.
The Democratic candidate for Senate from Missouri:
Claire McCaskill was elected in 2006, beating incumbent Jim Talent by 49-47.
She supports a woman’s right to choose and opposes a constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage. She voted to increase sentences for repeat violent offenders. She is a strong supporter of alternative fuels and the environment. She wants to ban lobbyist gifts, limit congressional pay raises and extend full voting rights to DC. She has voted to raise the minimum wage. On the Issues rates her as moderate on social issues and fairly liberal on economic issues.
Todd Akin: The Republican candidate for Senate from Missouri
Todd Akin is the representative from Missouri’s 2nd congressional district, where he was first elected in 2001. Akin is a strong opponent of choice and has said that life begins at conception. He voted against TARP and the economic recovery package and against regulating the subprime mortgage industry. Akin has proposed a balanced budget amendment to the constitution. He opposes same-sex marriage, opposes ending job discrimination based on sexual orientation. He voted against allowing shareholders to vote on executive compensation.
He is for allowing more carbon emissions and against efforts to safeguard the environment. Todd Akin also voted against helping workers who lose their jobs to outsourcing. On the Issues rated him as very conservative on both economic and social issues.
Todd Akin got a 7 rating from the ACLU and an 8 rating from the National Educational Alliance and a 10 from the League of Conservation Voters (all out of 100).On the Issues has no page for him. His own website identifies himself as a “conservative” and as an opponent of choice.
The polls General election – Recent polls show a fairly close race for Senate from Indiana, Rasmussen shows Republicans winning, PPP shows McCaskill winning.
May 20 – A poll by a Democratic pollster shows McCaskill winning by between 5 and 9 points against different Republicans.
May 29 – A PPP polls shows it close against all 3 Republican candidates.
July 30 – Mason Dixon has McCaskill down by between 5 and 11
Aug 13 – SurveyUSA has Akin winning 51-40, but Chilenski Strategies has him winning by just 1 point – 48-47
Aug 20 – A PPP poll shows Akin leading 44-43
Aug 23 – A Rasmussen poll has McCaskill up by 10
Aug 25 – A Mason Dixon poll has McCaskill up by 9
Aug 28 – Gravis Marketing has McCaskill up by 2
Aug 30 – a PPP poll has McCaskill up by 1
Sep 22 – YouGov has McCaskill by 7
Sep 27 – Chilenski Strategies has Akin up by 1
Oct 1 – Kiley & Co has McCaskill up by 9
Oct 3 – We Ask America has McCaskill up by 1
Oct 4 – PPP has McCaskill up by 6
Oct 5 – Wenzel Strategies has Akin by 2
Oct 17 – Kiley & Co. has McCaskill by 14; YouGov has her up by 5
Oct 20 – Harstad Research has McCaskill by 12, Rasmussen has McCaskill by 8
Oct 22 – PPP has McCaskill by 6
Oct 29 – Mason Dixon has McCaskill by 2; Kiley has McCaskill by 14
Nov 5 – PPP has McCaskill by 4; YouGov by 10; SurveyUSA by 15
