There are plenty of people who try to prognosticate about the NFL Draft, each with their own approach to determining the right combination of teams and players. I love reading these articles and have felt inspired to create my own mock draft for the 2007 NFL Draft. In researching this year’s draft, I found a wider variation in opinion than most years. I conclude that this variation comes from the high amount of talent in certain positions (i.e. offensive line) and the low amount of talent in others (i.e. wide receiver). I created a matrix of different mock drafts, including Mel Kiper’s first round, Scout Inc.’s Top 32 players, and Yahoo! Sports’ latest mock draft. From there, I looked over teams to determine general needs and found that my opinion of needs and values were somewhat different from the experts. I hope that this mock draft contributes to further discussion and gets fans talking about the draft from a more informed perspective.
The Oakland Raiders:
Any other owner or personnel director would trade this pick down in order to pick up additional picks. Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks were on their butts all of last season, Randy Moss and Jerry Porter are malcontents, and the running game was non-existent. However, Al Davis is uniquely antiquated and he is hoping for one miracle player to turn around the Oakland Raiders’ franchise. Their 2007 NFL Draft pick will be JaMarcus Russell, but it should be Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Al Davis will go with potential over immediate value but a few moves could get rid of Moss and Porter, allowing Johnson to be the new face of the Raiders’ franchise. Good luck, Raiders Nation, you are going to need it.
The Detroit Lions:
The Lions would be spared the option of choosing Calvin Johnson, after three largely unsuccessful first round receivers in the last five years, if there was another team above them. The Raiders will give into JaMarcus Russell fever, so the Lions will have to eschew Johnson on their own. If the Raiders do choose Johnson, look for the Lions to pick up JaMarcus Russell and have him develop into a major playmaker in the weaker NFC. However, a good fall back in the 2007 NFL Draft for the Lions brain trust is tackle Joe Thomas, who has a ton of talent and is ready to go in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns:
The Browns just dealt Reuben Droughns to the New York Giants for Tim Davis and they already have a young quarterback in Charlie Frye. Their 2007 first round pick in the NFL Draft will be running back Adrian Peterson of Oklahoma. Peterson fills a need and has a motor comparable to Cadillac Williams in Tampa Bay. The Browns get potential and value with this pick, which is more than other teams can say.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
The Buccaneers will use their 2007 first round pick in the NFL Draft to take Calvin Johnson if he is available. Johnson will give the Bucs instant offensive credibility and a big target for either Chris Simms or Jeff Garcia. However, if Johnson is taken ahead of them, the Bucs may take Joe Thomas out of Wisconsin. Thomas is a good fall back pick for every team, as there is never a shortage of offensive line needs in the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals:
The Cardinals get the opportunity at a clear cut choice with the fifth overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. Jamaal Anderson, the big defensive lineman out of Arkansas, helps the Cardinals stuff the run immediately and gives Ken Whisenhunt one less worry for the upcoming season. Trust me, he will have plenty of other worries considering the team’s collapse last season.
The Washington Redskins:
The Washington Redskins are an intriguing team in the 2007 NFL Draft, as they have been active in talking to teams about moving up or down. The team recently set up a meeting with JaMarcus Russell, a nod to a possible fall by Russell or a move upward by the Redskins. However, it seems unlikely that the Redskins will pass on Gaines Adams, the talented defensive end out of Clemson. Adams is versatile and has an engine that doesn’t stop, which is a combination that Joe Gibbs cannot possibly pass on.
The Minnesota Vikings:
Brady Quinn will not drop too far in the first round but he may land in one of the best situations of any pick in the Top Ten. I have always been hard on the Vikings, being a Packers fan, but I think that Quinn could step in immediately and play pretty well. Brad Childress and the Vikings front office need to use their 2007 first round pick in the NFL Draft to get a player that can step in immediately. Quinn has already studied under QB guru Charlie Weis and Childress will work the offensive system around the young quarterback to utilize his skills.
The Atlanta Falcons:
The Falcons will use their first pick in the NFL Draft to pick up safety LaRon Landry from LSU. This pick has been fairly consistent over the offseason mock drafts because Landry is a Top Ten talent, the Falcons need help on deep plays, and Bobby Petrino is looking for a new attitude in Atlanta. Landry can bring that attitude, some hard hits, and athleticism into the defensive backfield.
The Miami Dolphins:
The Dolphins front office will debate between several defensive linemen before using their first round pick in this draft. However, my observation of the available linemen at the top of the draft leads me to believe that Adam Carricker from Nebraska will be picked in this slot. Carricker can be a Grant Wistrom-type of lineman and is athletic enough to fit in with the current defensive unit.
The Houston Texans:
In last season’s draft preview, I implored the Texans to pick a whole new offensive line for franchise quarterback David Carr. Carr is now gone and Gary Kubiak needs to protect new quarterback Matt Schaub and running back Ahman Green. The best choice for the Texas in this slot is tackle Levi Brown of Penn State, who can start right away and keep Schaub on his feet and throwing the ball.
The San Francisco 49ers:
Mike Nolan is looking for a few good men for his defensive unit, which still needs a few pieces to get the 49ers back to their winning ways. Amobi Okoye, the durable defensive tackle out of Louisville, can fit into the defensive scheme of the 49ers right away. If the Dolphins or Texans select Okoye, look for San Francisco to take Carricker with their first round pick.
The Buffalo Bills:
Sit in Marv Levy’s chair on Draft Day and the choice of Marshawn Lynch, running back from California, in the 2007 NFL Draft will make sense. The team just dealt away Willis McGahee to the Ravens, which means that they have a need at running back. Lynch is a tough runner who can block and catch out of the backfield. Levy may else look to trade this pick down for additional picks, maybe looking toward the bottom of the first round to select the slew of solid linebackers and defensive backs.
The St. Louis Rams:
The front office of the St. Louis Rams will be looking for defensive backs in the draft and in free agency. Indeed, the Rams were often torched last season by opposing quarterbacks because of their lack of defensive talent. In the end, it is likely that the Rams will see Michigan corner Leon Hall’s sub -4.4 40 time and his ability to smother receivers as one piece to the defensive puzzle. There will be some debate in the war room over which defensive back to take but Hall seems the best solution to the Rams’ long term coverage problems.
The Carolina Panthers:
The Panthers need a solid playmaker to complement Steve Smith and someone to help out in the running game. Miami tight end Greg Olsen may not be the best run blocker in the draft but he is a great playmaker-in-waiting. Carolina will probably not hesitate to take Olsen with this pick unless someone makes them an offer they cannot refuse.
The Pittsburgh Steelers:
In the 2007 NFL Draft, the Steelers will be looking to supplement their defensive backfield depth and land someone they can develop over the next two or three years. Darrelle Revis, the defensive back from Pittsburgh, can stay close to home and play for a team that is only a year removed from winning the Super Bowl. Revis, in return, gives them a shut down corner down the road because of his 6 foot, 200 pound frame and 4.38 speed.
The Green Bay Packers:
The Packers now need a marquee running back and a receiver opposite Donald Driver, who was a wonder despite a young receiving corps in 2006. Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson have risen above the Packers’ reach in the 2007 NFL Draft, so the Packers should look to fill their need at receiver. Robert Meacham from Tennessee is speedy, durable, and has great hands. Meacham can be the deep threat that helps Donald Driver stay open for catches under the middle. If Meacham is gone or the Packers decide to make a bold move, look for them to trade with the Panthers to grab Greg Olsen. Bubba Franks is not long for the Green Bay Packers organization.
The Jacksonville Jaguars:
Reggie Nelson of the NCAA champion Florida Gators will be selected with the 17th pick in the 2007 NFL Draft because of pure skills. The safety’s 40 yard dash time has fluctuated between 4.35 and 4.40 but Nelson is a heady player and the Jaguars need help in the defensive backfield. Nelson may be one of the best players in his first year in the NFL and his adjustment from Gainesville to Jacksonville won’t take much effort.
The Cincinnati Bengals:
The Cincinnati Bengals may be bad boys off of the field but there are some real concerns for Marvin Lewis on the field in 2007. The team needs to address issues with their defense, particular the interior line. At the Bengals’ position in the draft, Michigan defensive lineman Alan Branch seems to be the best option. Marvin Lewis will benefit from Branch’s move down the 2007 NFL Draft board due to concerns over work ethic and athleticism. However, anyone who has watched Branch live or on film cannot doubt his potential as a solid defensive lineman in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans:
Most mock draft boards on the Web today have the Titans taking Robert Meacham with their 2007 first round pick. However, I cannot see the most solid receiver dropping to the Titans at #19, with a few teams looking for complementary receivers. The Titans’ brain trust will need to decide between Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith of USC in addition to Ted Ginn Jr. of Ohio State. Ginn Jr. is falling quickly to the bottom of the 2007 NFL Draft’s first round and Smith seems a more likely pick in the second round. Jarrett is athletic and gives Vince Young a nice, big target in addition to Drew Bennett.
The New York Giants:
The Giants cannot go wrong by taking Penn State linebacker Paul Posluszny with their first round choice. Posluszny is one of the most solid pro prospects at this point in the draft and his track record in the tough Big Ten speaks for itself. The Giants need an attitude adjustment after a messy year on and off the field. While Tom Coughlin may want to get a running back at this position, the best value is in the powerful Posluszny.
The Denver Broncos:
The running back machine that is the Denver Broncos uses talented offensive linemen as its fuel. Mike Shanahan will certainly push for a talented offensive tackle or guard in the 2007 NFL Draft and there are few as talented at the bottom of the first round as Joe Staley. Staley, a tackle at mid-major Central Michigan, has moved up from the second round due to solid Pro Day workouts and a good combine. Staley can fit into the offensive line in a few years, after getting the Broncos system down pat.
The Dallas Cowboys:
Wade Phillips inherits a defense that is rich with lineman and linebackers but is lacking in defensive backfield depth. Phillips is not just a caretaker for Terrell Owens or new celebrity Tony Romo; he will have to do some coaching. The best prospect for the Cowboys’ long term needs in the backfield is Arkansas cornerback Chris Houston. He can step in immediately at the nickel spot or in an emergency, with potential to be a great defensive back in five years’ time.
The Kansas City Chiefs:
The Chiefs will certainly have a new offensive face for 2007, with Trent Green likely to be traded and backup Damon Huard likely to earn the starting spot. Huard performed admirably in lieu of Green, hitting short and medium routes to Tony Gonzales and others while winning a number of games. If Huard is to succeed downfield, however, he needs a legitimate deep threat. Ted Ginn Jr. from Ohio State can fit into the deep threat slot immediately, while giving Dante Hall a run for his money in the return game. The Chiefs may look to move up in the 2007 NFL Draft if they want a well-rounded receiver or defensive player but Ginn Jr. is a good value at this position.
The New England Patriots (#24 and #28):
The Patriots received a draft pick from the Seahawks for Deion Branch at the beginning of the 2006 NFL season, which will allow them to land some depth at key positions. At #24 in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Patriots will go after linebacker Lawrence Timmons of Florida State. Timmons is athletically gifted but he has fluctuated up and down mock drafts this offseason due to concerns about character and work ethic. Brian Belichick is character enough and Timmons will learn quickly to fall in line or get shipped off to a less successful team. At #28, the Patriots will get a backup for Lawrence Mulroney by taking Rutgers running back Brian Leonard. Leonard has slimmed down and gotten more powerful, moving up the draft board in the process. Leonard could be a good complement to Mulroney in between the 20s, as he can pound out yardage.
The New York Jets:
The Jets have a number of depth concerns heading into the 2007 NFL Draft but value is always important at the end of the first round. The best value for Eric Mangini’s squad at #25 is defensive end Jarvis Moss from Florida, who can play speed end or outside linebacker. Moss may be characterized as a tweener by experts, but a year in the NFL will teach Moss that he needs to become savvy or gain muscle to succeed. It is a good risk for the Jets, who can use help in generating a great pass rush.
The Philadelphia Eagles:
Donovan McNabb needs as many weapons as he can get in 2007 and Andy Reid will be looking receiver after so many years looking to the offensive and defensive line. The big play receivers at the top of the 2007 NFL Draft will be gone by #26 but Reid should be content with picking LSU receiver Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has a good head on his shoulders, has a big body, and can become a reliable possession receiver for McNabb. Bowe also fills a need left by Donte Stallworth’s exit to New England in the offseason.
The New Orleans Saints:
The 2007 NFL Draft will be a good opportunity for the New Orleans Saints to add some depth to their upstart club of last year. The Saints have plenty of talent on the offensive and defensive side but depth at corner, linebackers, and offensive line will be addressed in the 2007 NFL Draft. Thorpe Award winner Aaron Ross from Texas is 6’1”, which will allow him to cover big NFL receivers, and has the instincts to make a move toward the ball. Ross is probably not ready to start on the corner quite yet, as he still needs some polish and practice against speedy receivers. However, the Saints have enough talent on both sides of the ball to take a raw talent like Ross in the first round.
The Baltimore Ravens:
The strength of the Ravens’ offense under Brian Billick has always been offensive line, anchored by out-of-this-world tackle Jonathan Ogden. However, Ogden is considering retiring soon and several offensive linemen have moved on via free agency over the last two years. Billick’s offense needs strong offensive linemen in order to open holes for Willis McGahee and protect Steve McNair. The most solid lineman available with the Ravens’ 2007 first round pick in the NFL Draft is Tony Ugoh, a guard out of Arkansas. Ugoh can develop over the next year and potentially start in 2008, unless injury accelerates the process.
The San Diego Chargers:
The Chargers are looking for help in their defensive backfield due to Terrence Kiel’s legal problems and an overall lack of depth at the corner and safety positions. While there are a few defensive backs available at the end of the first round and beginning of the second round in the 2007 Draft, Miami safety Brandon Meriweather may fit the Chargers’ scheme the best. Meriweather is a playmaker who lacks the typical size of an NFL safety and has some character issues. Norv Turner and A.J. Smith may have concerns about trading one problem for another but Meriweather has made a concerted effort of proving that he can play in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears:
The recalcitrant Lance Briggs has caused the Bears to actually shop around for a first round pick that can fill an immediate need. A trade of Briggs and their first round pick may help them move up in the draft, where they may select a higher profile linebacker. However, the Bears are likely to stick around towards the bottom of the first round of the 2007 NFL Draft. If everything falls into place as I have projected here, linebacker Patrick Willis from Mississippi will be available. Willis has incredible sub 4.4 speed and a lot of potential. The only reason he falls this low is that there are other position players available earlier in the round that fit specific team needs. No matter where Willis ends up, he will be a Pro Bowl linebacker in five years. A tumble down the draft board may give him the chip on his shoulder to break onto the field.
The Indianapolis Colts:
For a team that just won the Super Bowl, the Colts have plenty of needs to fill in the 2007 offseason. Several players, including running back Dominic Rhodes, linebacker Cato June, and cornerback Nick Harper, have left for the big money after earning that coveted Super Bowl Ring. However, the Colts are confident that these losses will be filled through shrewd free agent acquisitions and smart drafting. The Colts won’t fill one of these spots with the #32 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, picking up solid defensive tackle Justin Harell of Tennessee. Harell helps solidify their depth up the middle and the Colts will focus on later picks to fill holes in their depth chart.
