One of the most exclusive “clubs” in baseball is the 300-win club. Throughout baseball history, only 24 players have joined this club, and only 17 of those players have played a significant portion of their careers in the modern era (since 1900). The most recent player to join this club was Randy Johnson in 2009. He finished his career with 303 wins, and was the final pitcher of a generation that produced four new members of the club, Johnson, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Tom Glavine.
However, when Johnson won his 300th game in 2009, there was much discussion about him being the end of an era. The pitcher with the next highest win total was Jamie Moyer, and he was entering the 2009 season at age 46 with only 246 wins. Popular opinion said he had no chance whatsoever to reach that milestone number. Though he will enter the 2012 year at age 49 and still 33 wins short, he intends to pitch, but his odds have to be considered long at best.
The conclusion that many people came to was that the days of the 300 game winners were done. Pitchers were pampered far too much, innings were down, and pitchers were not winning at the rate they once were. After Moyer, the next active wins leader is Tim Wakefield, and he has not even reached 200. So who then would be able to climb the ladder and make it to 300?
Well, one of the reasons that pitchers have been given such a small chance of reaching 300 is that they are expected to decrease production, and retire at a similar age to the average major league starter; some point in their mid-30s. This is an erroneous assumption, because if we look at the list of 300-game winners, we see that three of the four pitchers to reach the plateau in the 2000s did so after 40. And Greg Maddux did so at age 38. In fact, since 1940, 11 of the 13 pitchers who joined the 300-win club have been at or above age 40; and five have been north of 42 when they got number 300. The point is; pitchers do not reach 300 in a “normal” career. Part of the reason 300 is so special is that it requires more than just dominance to be reached, it requires elongated career as well.
With that in mind, there are several pitchers that seem to have a reasonable shot at reaching the 300 plateau, even if they won’t get there in the next five years.
First in line, and the only player with a shot at 300 in the relatively near future, is CC Sabathia. At the end of this season, he will be 31, and given his current pace this season, will end with 176 wins, or 124 wins short of 300. That comes out to an average of less than 13 wins a year for the next 10 seasons. The weak part of this assumption is that Sabathia will win 13 games when he is 40; that is a hard guarantee to make. However, an equally weak assumption is that Sabathia will win only 13 games next season. Sabathia pitches for one of the best offenses in baseball, year in and year out. Despite Sabathia’s ERA currently sitting at 3.15, 24th in the MLB, he is tied for 8th in the league in wins. Arguably the biggest surprise would be Sabathia winning fewer than 17+ games any of the next four seasons. Playing on the Yankees, and the next four seasons occupying his early 30s, 17 wins should be a simple number for Sabathia to pick up year in and year out, especially given that he has won at least 19 in three of his last four seasons. Even assuming merely 17 wins a year for the next four years; Sabathia would find himself at 244 wins at age 35. That reduces the necessary performance to fewer than 10 wins a year for six more seasons. Injuries happen, players lose their drive to play, and it is possible that unforeseen circumstances prevent Sabathia from following this projected path. However, it would be a gratuitous error to say that the 300 winner is an extinct species with a candidate who seems to have such a good shot at achieving that goal.
After Sabathia, speculation becomes a bit more difficult. The best pitcher in the game today, Roy Halladay, did not win many games during his 20s, and even if he kept his current pace and won 23 games this season, would have to average more than 15 wins a season for every season from age 35 to 41, a tall order indeed. Certainly if anyone was a good bet to accomplish that feat, it would be Halladay, but even with all of his talent, pitching instincts, and incredible intellect on the mound, it is highly unlikely that Halladay could win 110 games after the age of 34; even Greg Maddux won only 115 after 34.
Justin Verlander is a possibility, on pace to finish this season with 101 wins. He would enter next season with this total and at age 29. This would give him 13 seasons including when he was 41 to achieve 199 wins. This demands an average of about 15.3 wins for over than span. Difficult, but not impossible, especially if Verlander can break through and win twenty once or twice.
Outside of these four, the remaining contestants for 300 wins require a bit more speculation. However, as I mentioned when writing about the emergence of a new era of pitchers: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8053333/the_year_of_the_pitcher_more_like_the.html
There are many young arms who are set to usher in a new era of baseball where pitching rules. This provides a number of pitchers who could potentially, 15 years down the road, be crossing the barrier into 300.
Winning 300 requires an average of 15 wins over 20 seasons. So if a pitcher began at age 21, and pitched until he was 41, he would reach 300 wins. Using this line as our model for a pitcher’s progress toward 300, we can establish if he is “on pace.” For example, a pitcher who is 23, and has won 45 games is directly “on pace,” (3 x 15 = 45).
Jon Lester of the Boston Red Sox is on pace to finish this season with 82 wins in what equates to approximately five full seasons of pitching. This equates to higher than 15 wins per season, but he is behind the age standard that was explained above. However, he is trending upwards, so he should be looked at as a potential 300 game winner.
David Price is on pace to finish this season with 47 wins in 3 full seasons, also pacing him ahead of 15 wins per season, but he is also behind the age line. Price is also coming into his prime, and could possibly make up the ground he is behind on the age line.
Tim Lincecum is on pace to finish up this year at age 27 with 69 wins, assuming he only wins 13 this season. More likely is that he will have approximately 73 career wins at age 27, and in only 5 full MLB seasons. Though behind both the age and season curve, Lincecum’s pitching numbers indicate that if he ever ends up on a team with some offense, he could be a perennial 20 game winner. As such, Lincecum certainly has an opportunity to win 300.
But perhaps the best chance at 300 wins, from all of the young pitchers in the league lies with one of the least-winning Cy Young pitchers of all time, Felix Hernandez. Though he is actually behind the curve of wins per season, Hernandez is actually one of the few pitchers who is ahead of the wins for age chart as early as 25. He will be 25 at the end of this season, and is projected to have already collected 86 wins. Had he won 15 per year since age 21, he would have 75. This comes despite having pitched for anemic offenses in Seattle, where his record last season was 13-12 despite an ERA of 2.27. One of the things that would best help King Felix’s chances is a move to a team with better hitting. However, despite the poor offense backing him, Hernandez is as “on pace” as one could possibly be for a club as exclusive as the 300-win club.
There are no guarantees for the 300 win club. An injury or collection of injuries which steal a season away can kill a player’s chance at 300. Some players lose the drive to prepare for the season, or decide to walk away on top, like Mike Mussina, and don’t reach the number. And though hopefully this isn’t the case, a lockout or work stoppage can devastate the pursuit of numbers such as 300. However, as shown in this article, the 300-win club is far from completed. The slightly older generation of pitchers, lead by CC Sabathia, has a pair of legitimate candidates for membership, and the younger generation seems to have a bottomless supply of pitchers who could ascend to all-time great status. Only time will tell; but one thing that I can promise is that there will be another 300-game winner in my lifetime.
Sources:
300 Wins Club
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/pitching/pi300c.shtml
Baseball Almanac
