An off-season analysis of the defending NFC South champion Carolina Panthers going into the 2009 NFL season.
Last Year
Behind their strong rushing attack the Carolina Panthers finished 12-4 and won the NFC South and a first-round playoff bye. They were stunned, however, by the Arizona Cardinals 33-13 at Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium in the divisional playoffs.
Big Off-season News
The Panthers haven’t made a lot of off-season news so far, and what news there is hasn’t been very good. The biggest focus has been the holdout of star defensive end Julius Peppers, a situation everyone associated with the Panthers is downplaying but one that could get ugly quick. The four-time Pro Bowler hasn’t shown up to any of the optional mini-camps or off-season workouts after being angry that the team franchised him at a $16.7 million salary. You can find a summary of the Peppers situation here.
The other big news was the re-signing of quarterback Jake Delhomme to a five-year, $42.5 million contract extension, something many fans aren’t thrilled about considering Delhomme’s playoff meltdown against Arizona.
Departures
The most significant departure is cornerback Ken Lucas, who was cut in a salary cap move. Lucas struggled last year in coverage (never a good thing if your position is cornerback) but his class in handling the Steve Smith punching incident earned him praise from teammates and fans.
Lucas has been signed by Seattle, the team that originally drafted him in the 2nd round in 2001. Richard Marshall, a vet who played nickel back last year, will move into Carolina’s starting lineup to replace Lucas.
The other meaningful departures for the Panthers were their three top reserve offensive linemen. Depth on the O-line was a strength last year, but is a big concern for 2009.
The Panthers also lost kick returner Mark Jones, who had a solid year, but they have several candidates to replace him including Ryne Robinson, a speedster who missed all of last season with an injury.
Arrivals
Carolina has not been very active in free agency or trades, mainly due to the Peppers situation. When the biggest news is finding a new long snapper, you know the team is going to have to go with what it has and hope some draft choices pan out.
Draft
Speaking of the draft, the Panthers traded next year’s number one pick for the second season in a row. Last year’s gamble paid off as offensive lineman Jeff Otah turned out to be the real deal.
This year the Panthers will be looking to Florida State defensive end Everette Brown. That they took Brown with the 11th pick in the second round was no surprise considering Julius Peppers’ status. Even if Peppers does end up playing at Carolina in 2009 (which he likely will) the team doesn’t have another standout DE. Although he’s a bit undersized Brown is a speed-rusher, which the team desperately needs, and is already getting notice for his off-season work ethic.
Strengths
The biggest asset the Panthers have is their running game, always a huge part of conservative Coach John Fox’s game plan. Carolina has two legit big-time running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and the team returns every starter on a very good offensive line.
The Panthers’ other big offensive weapon is wide receiver Steve Smith, who had another great year in 2008 despite missing the first couple of games over the Lucas incident.
On defense, former Colts defensive coordinator Ron Meeks takes over the same job in Carolina. Meeks brings in a Tampa-2 scheme and a lot of energy. Jon Beason is the defensive standout at middle linebacker, while massive defensive tackle Ma’ake Kemoeatu plugs up the running lanes.
Carolinas’ two-kicker strategy, with John Kasay doing field goals and Rhys Lloyd as a kickoff booming specialist was a big success and will probably be repeated despite the fact that it takes an extra roster spot.
Weaknesses
The team rises and falls with Delhomme, and last year it fell hard in the playoffs. Handcuffed by the Peppers issue, however, Carolina clearly has decided Jake is the safe bet for the future. Delhomme fits Fox’s strategy, since he likes to run first and go for the occasional bomb to Smith to keep the defense loose. If the team falters the fans will jump all over Jake due to the new contract.
Although Smith is a great weapon the Panthers still lack a standout second receiver to take the heat off him. This has been a problem area for the team for years. Returning vet Muhsin Muhammad had 923 yards and 5 touchdowns in a decent performance last year, and he is a good blocker for the run game. But at 36 it is questionable if Muhammad can provide enough production to keep teams from doubling Smith every play.
The Panthers lost all of their depth at offensive line and have only marginally addressed the issue in the draft and free agency. Since the team seems to have O-linemen hurt almost every game and relies heavily on the run, this could be a back-breaker if some second-unit guys don’t step up.
Outlook
The Julius Peppers situation could be a huge headache for the team. If he holds out from a $16.7 million salary Peppers likely won’t get much sympathy from fans, but whether he is absent or playing without desire a lack of production from Peppers is big trouble for a defense that is only mediocre when he’s playing well. Peppers could still be traded for some help in several key spots, but that is unlikely.
It doesn’t help that coming off a 12-4 year the Panthers have a brutal schedule, with only a single team (Buffalo) which had a losing record in 2008. Overall, according to NFL.com, Panthers opponents had a combined record of 123-84-1 last season.
Carolina is going to be able to run the ball, but inevitable injuries to the offensive line are going to be very hard for the team to handle. Mostly, though, the success of the offense will again rest on Delhomme’s shoulders.
Defensively the team needs a motivated Peppers, something it might not have, and they need their linebackers and defensive backs to step up. Without much depth, defensive injuries could be a big problem, especially if Beason or Kemoeatu is out any stretch of time.
Overall this looks like another conservative Carolina team looking to pound the running backs at opponents and win close games late. Without much depth anywhere (except at running back) the season could turn on injuries. Another 12-4 year would be a big accomplishment, with a 9-7 record much more likely.
Sources: 2008 records and stats from NFL.com.
