This year’s Derby is shaping up to being a good one. Here’s a look at the five horses that have the best shot at becoming the 2008 Kentucky Derby Winner.
Big Brown
Big Brown is the one to beat, and he is going to be the morning-line favorite. He’s undefeated after three starts in his lifetime, but one of them was on the turf, and he’s only had two starts this year. He’s had some difficulty with foot problems in the past, and the very hard Churchill Downs surface could take its toll. His win in his final prep, the Florida Derby, was one of the most impressive of the year, however, so he will be a force to be reckoned with. Should he get a bad post (far inside or far outside), the odds of winning will be against him, and many believe that his two prep races this year against less-than-great horses aren’t enough to have him ready for such a big race. But his trainer, Rick Dutrow, and jockey, Kent Desormeaux, say he’s one of the best either one of them has ever seen, and that’s saying a lot.
Pyro
Up until his last race, Pyro was the top contender for the Derby. He’s had seven lifetime starts, so he’s got experience on his side. It looked as though he would be coming into the Derby off of a three-race win streak, but he just didn’t run in his last race. People shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss him, however. His last start was on the synthetic surface at Keeneland, and many dirt horses just do not like the surface there (It’s playing better to turf horses). So the best thing to do is to throw that race completely out. He’s a late runner like last year’s winner, Street Sense, so he’ll be coming strong in the stretch. Steve Asmussen, the trainer of Horse of the Year, Preakness winner, Breeder’s Cup winner, and Dubai World Cup winner, Curlin, is Pyro’s trainer, so he definitely shouldn’t be discounted. Asmussen will also sometimes purposely tone down a horse for their prep race before a big race, which he did with Curlin before his Breeder’s Cup prep, which he lost. It ended up working out, however, when Curlin went on to win his Breeder’s Cup prep and the Breeder’s Cup race. Carl Nafziger, the trainer for last year’s Derby winner, Street Sense, did the same thing with him last year in his prep race (which he lost) before his Derby win, so don’t be surprised if Pyro runs a big race this time.
Colonel John has been running impressively on synthetic surfaces all year, but is yet to race on dirt. He’s won four of six lifetime starts, and this horse is a fighter. His ability to race on dirt has been in question all year, but with his recent workout on the Churchill Down’s surface, any doubts that anyone had about this horse liking dirt should be laid to rest. He worked extremely well, and he is the son of a great dirt sire, Tiznow, so he’s going to have no problems. In fact, it seems as though he’ll be even better on dirt. He runs very well in the stretch, and he doesn’t give up.
Eight Belles
Like Rags to Riches in the Belmont last year, this filly is looking to win a Triple Crown race. She’s not a definite starter in the Derby as of yet, because if she gets a bad post, she’ll drop out and run in the Kentucky Oaks. This girl can run, however, and she’ll give the boys a run for their money. She’s already had nine lifetime starts, and has won her last four races. Should she run in the Derby, she’ll have a very good shot at winning.
Denis of Cork
I’ll throw Denis of Cork in here as a longer shot that has a very good chance. Due to not having enough graded earnings and a poor decision made by his owners, Denis almost didn’t make the Derby field. With the defection of one of the other starters, however, he is now in. He had a disappointing prep at Hawthorne, but a lot of horses don’t take too well to the surface there. Before that race, he had won three races in a row. His workouts have been going very well since his loss, so he’s another horse that you can probably just throw the prep race out on. He’s going to have last year’s winning jockey, Calvin Borel, on board, and he has also had a win over the Churchill Downs surface, so he has a very legitimate chance of winning.
There will be 15 other horses in the field other than these five (unless Eight Belles defects, in which case there will be 14), but I believe the horses listed here have the best shot at winning. The post draw will be today, so if you’re planning on betting the Derby, take a look at the horses’ post positions, because drawing a good post is very important. Regardless of who wins, this year’s Derby is shaping up to being a very exciting one to watch.
