The first pick of your fantasy football draft can often make or break your entire season. Whether failed expectations or a surprise injury is the culprit, you need to consider many scenarios before deciding who will be the primary piece of your team. This article takes a look at my list of the top 10 players to draft for the 2013 NFL season and why.
Position Value
Although the most valuable position on any fantasy football team is the quarterback, due to the small disparity in points among elite quarterbacks, they are often undervalued and more emphasis is placed on drafting an elite running back. Deciding to wait a couple of rounds to draft a quarterback can be smart if you are lucky enough to draft a QB destined to breakout, and spend the previous picks on solid running backs and wide receivers. This list includes several quarterbacks that are worth spending a first round draft pick on instead of waiting in hopes of finding a serviceable quarterback. Wide receivers and running backs can be risky picks in the first round or two when there are elite quarterbacks still on the board.
Rookies
Although once in a while a rookie comes out of nowhere to obtain fantasy football fame, this article assumes that there will not be any first year players that are worthy of a top ten draft pick. Even though last year’s breakout rookie Doug Martin was able to put up top ten numbers, he was not even a top 30 pick at the time of the draft. Be on the lookout for rookies to draft in later rounds.
Here are my top ten fantasy football players to draft for the 2013 NFL season:
Honorable Mentions: Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Peyton Manning, Dez Bryant
#10. Brandon Marshall – WR Chicago Bears
With 118 receptions, 1,508 yards and 11 touchdowns, Brandon Marshall had a fantastic first season with the Chicago Bears. The Bears are going through some changes as they fired head coach Lovie Smith. A new offensive system should only help Marshall in future years to come. Marshall will be the primary target once again for quarterback Jay Cutler, and he should be a top 10 fantasy draft pick this season.
#9. Tom Brady – QB New England Patriots
Quarterback Tom Brady is continuing to build to his legacy after another Pro Bowl quality season. Brady had 4,827 Passing Yards, 34 Passing Touchdowns, 8 Interceptions, and 4 Rushing Touchdowns. Although the New England Patriots may see a lot of turnover at wide receiver as Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, and Wes Welker are all free agents; Tom Brady has always been able to turn mediocre wide receivers into lethal weapons. Taking Tom Brady as the first or second pick in your fantasy draft is not a bad idea.
#8. Aaron Rodgers – QB Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers is one of the rare quarterbacks who can succeed no matter who his receivers and running backs are. Even with most of his receiving core injured, he had 4,295 passing yards and 39 touchdowns to only 8 interceptions. He may lose Greg Jennings to free agency, but Rodgers still has talented receivers in Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson along with James Jones. Rodgers had the NFL’s highest QB rating at 108, and is the second best option you can pick for your fantasy quarterback.
#7. Alfred Morris – RB Washington Redskins
Although he went undrafted in most fantasy leagues, Alfred Morris had the second most rushing yards out of all running backs and had the second most rushing touchdowns. Morris had over 1,600 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Morris is a top ten fantasy player this season, don’t let him slip away if you have a chance to grab him with your second pick, or if the other players on this list have already been taken.
#6. Marshawn Lynch – RB Seattle Seahawks
Marshawn Lynch was one of the most consistent fantasy performers and ended the season with 1,590 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. His finish was a testament to his strong performance, as he ended the season with four straight 100 yard games and 6 total touchdowns. Lynch should benefit from quarterback Russel Wilson’s development, and looks to have a similar season in 2013.
#5. Drew Brees – QB New Orleans Saints
With 43 passing touchdowns and 5,177 yards passing, it is clear to see why Drew Brees is the top quarterback for the 2013 season. With Sean Payton back as the head coach, Brees may have an even better season. He had 11 games with 3 or more touchdowns and threw for over 300 yards 10 times. Even in a bad year for the New Orleans Saints, Brees excelled.
#4. Doug Martin – RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One of the best surprises of the 2012 NFL season was Doug Martin becoming a rookie sensation. He finished with 1,454 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns, and over 470 yards receiving. Martin does not look like a one-year wonder and should be taken seriously as a top-5 fantasy draft pick.
#3. Arian Foster – RB Houston Texans
Although he was the top overall pick for most fantasy leagues in 2012, with the first pick in your fantasy draft, I would not pick Arian Foster. Foster was 6th in the NFL with 1,424 rushing yards, more than 600 yards behind Adrian Peterson. Although he lacked in several categories, he did lead the league in rushing touchdowns with 15. Look for Foster to increase his rushing yards, but still fall second to Peterson in rushing.
#2. Calvin Johnson – WR Detroit Lions
With 1,964 yards receiving, Calvin Johnson shattered the mark for most receiving yards in a single season, previously held by Jerry Rice. Johnson should have an even better fantasy season this year, as he had only 5 touchdowns last season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford had an off year but still managed nearly 5,000 yards passing and will look for Johnson even more next season as the Detroit Lions are struggling with finding capable healthy receivers. Although many fantasy owners don’t take wide receivers seriously in the first round of their draft, when there is a clear dominant player in a category, like Johnson, it is hard to look past him after Adrian Peterson is off of the board.
#1. Adrian Peterson – RB Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson is once again at the top of fantasy football rankings after being tossed aside the past few years as a top 10 overall player. Peterson had one of the greatest seasons for a running back in history, and there is nothing to suggest that he will not have a repeat year in 2013. Peterson finished the season with 2,097 Rushing Yards, 12 Rushing Touchdowns, 40 Receptions, 217 Receiving Yards and 1 Receiving Touchdown while averaging 6 yards per carry. Peterson finished the season on a hot streak, gaining over 150 yards in seven of his last ten games. There is no better pick in your fantasy draft, if you have the opportunity to draft him, take Peterson.
*All statistics from NFL via NFL.com
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