Are you a casual fantasy football manager that opts for 12 team standard redraft leagues? Do you like to evaluate players based on how they will perform immediately in 2012 as opposed to looking at their potential for future stardom? Do you not like to be bothered by combing the waiver wire and constantly trying to track down the next big sleep? If you answered yes to any of those three questions then chances are this article may not be what you’re looking for. This article is intended to target sleepers and super sleepers for dynasty purposes. These players may even be available on the free agent market of 16 team dynasty leagues, and they should be targeted in the later rounds of upcoming drafts. Some of these players could make an impact in 2012 and beyond, whereas others are a year or two away. Chances are at least half of these names won’t even be called on draft day if you’re drafting in a large dynasty league, but they all should be. This is meant to be a comprehensive list of both low cost and complete out of nowhere super sleeper type players. Without further introduction, I give you my 2012 fantasy football dynasty league sleepers, broken down by position.
Quarterback
Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars) – I am not going to lie, a year ago at this time I would have told you that Blaine was the better long term prospect than Cam Newton. Obviously I have since decided to back off of that stance, right around the 2nd half of week one last year. However, that doesn’t mean that Gabbert should be written off completely. He struggled mightily last year with every aspect of the game. He looked skiddish in the pocket, didn’t stand in to deliver his throws and read the field about as well as Ryan Leaf. A few factors went into the debacle of starts that Gabbert put together in 2011, and they have all been rectified in the offseason heading into 2012. Blaine was literally throwing to WRs that wouldn’t have been starters for division I college schools. Mike Thomas, Jason Hill, Jarrett Dillard, Cecil Shorts and Chastin West…those names strike fear into the hearts of secondaries like Shonn Greene strikes fear into the hearts of broccoli and salads. The Jaguars traded up to get Justin Blackmon and paid Laurent Robinson a boatload of cash in the offseason, allowing them two legitimate starting NFL caliber WRs and also allowing Mike Thomas to move back t the slot, where he showed flashes of success at in 2010. Gabbert also struggled with grasping the pro game as he was thrust into the starting job entirely to early. He came from a spread offense at Missouri and was forced to start early into the season because the Jags only other option was Luke McClown. Anyone could have foreseen his struggles last season, this is the kind of QB that should have been holding a clipboard last season. He now has game experience however, and more importantly has a full offseason free of the lockout to fully develop his game and transition to the NFL. The final main hurdle that Blaine faced last season was the coaching staff. Jack Del Rio was an atrocious head coach in way over his head and his position coaches all followed his example. The Jaguars have since cleaned house and brought in Mike Murlarky, who has had success grooming Matt Ryan into a good NFL QB for the Atlanta Falcons. Give this kid some weapons, a full offseason and a new coaching staff that knows how to develop a quarterback and game plan to his strengths and he’s the perfect dynasty sleeper heading into 2012.
John Skelton (Cardinals) – Skelton’s placement here as a sleeper assumes that he will win the starting job in Arizona, though if he doesn’t win it outright because of Kevin Blob’s contract look for Skelton to take over the reigns by week 4. He has a strong arm and coming out of Fordham reminded me a lot of Ben Roethlisberger. The major thing Skelton has that Kolb doesn’t is the arm strength and willingness to chuck the ball down the field. He is going to make mistakes, as any young QB will, but with those mistakes come opportunities to grow. Kolb was the checkdown king last season, and it was brutal to watch him miss the window on throws to a wide open Larry Fitzgerald. Skelton on the other hand would zip it into triple coverage and hope for the best, but with the type of talent Fitz is I would rather have the latter, as would the fantasy community. The Cardinals have enough talent at WR for Skelton to be a good fantasy QB, especially with the addition of big-bodied Michael Floyd in the offseason. Throw in a serviceable running game to take some of the pressure off and Skelton is ready to take over in Arizona. He will show fantasy owners everywhere that their long awaited wait for a QB not named Kurt to throw non ducks to their top fantasy WR is finally over.
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) – Wilson is at least a year away from making an impact in the NFL and should only be stashed for dynasty purposes. However, his overall skill set and situation make him a guy that you shouldn’t overlook entirely. He transferred into the University of Wisconsin last year and grasped their pro style offense like he was a 4th year starter. The competition for the starting job in Seattle couldn’t be much worse as Matt Flynn has a weak arm and was simply a byproduct of GB’s stellar offense and Tarvaris Jackson is…well…Tarvaris Jackson. Wilson is without a doubt the most talented QB on this team and he has shown the ability to grasp a new offense quickly. Look for him to be under center for the Hawks by the start of the 2013 season, and with his talent I would expect big things.
Other players to target:
Sam Bradford (Rams)
Matt Schaub (Texans)
David Garrard (Dolphins)
Ryan Mallett (Patriots)
Brock Osweiler (Broncos)
Colin Kaepernick (49ers)
Joe Webb (Vikings)
Wide Receiver
Eric Decker (Broncos) – Decker has picked up the NFL game quickly and is going to be Peyton’s favorite target in Denver this year. A lot of guys are tempted to go after the sexier pick of Demaryius Thomas, whose ADP is much high than Decker’s. Though Thomas may have more raw talent Decker is more suited to the type of football that Manning likes to play. Decker is an excellent route runner and can spot the wholes in a defensive secondary. With Decker Manning can throw to a spot and trust that he’ll be there to catch it. Thomas on the other hand has never played in a pro style offense, going all the way back to his college days at Georgia Tech. As a result, he (self admission by Demaryius recently) has never had to really learn how to run good routes. He went from running fly patterns in college to running schoolyard patterns with Flimmy Tebow at the helm. He has also been unable to stay healthy, which has stunted his development a bit. Decker would be a bargain if he were being drafted at Thomas’ ADP, but he is going much lower, which makes him a STEAL. Grab Decker in the middle/late rounds or shell out around $10 at auction and reap the rewards all season long. From a dynasty standpoint Decker and Manning should make sweet music together for at least the next 2-3 years, when Manning presumably gives way t the strong armed goliath Brock Osweiler.
Laurent Robinson (Jaguars) – A lot of people are down on Robinson after his breakout season with Dallas last season. I understand why, the guy goes from having Tony Romo throwing to him to the inexperienced Gabbert. He also goes from having Miles, Dez and Witten drawing coverage away in Dallas to being one of the main centerpieces of the offense in Jacksonville, which will bring with it added coverage. However, Robinson has the talent to succeed and his situation is ideal when you think about the number of looks that he will receive. I believe Robinson will quickly develop into Blaine’s favorite target, and given their young ages that’s a QB-WR connect that will live on for as long as you could hope for. The Jaguars traded up to draft Justin Blackmon to be the #1 WR, but Blackmon is a rookie and as such will have a learning curve. He is also much less physically gifted than stud youngsters AJ Green and Julio Jones, who can simply take over a game with their shear talent. Let’s also hope for his sake that Blackmon paid real close attention during the recent rookie symposium, as he has already been arrested for drunk driving since being drafted in April. Given all those red Blackmon flags I think he will take some time to develop while Robinson benefits from developing an early report with Gabbert. Marcedes Lewis should have his head on straight this season and will also help to take some of the coverage away from Robinson. In drafting Laurent at his current ADP you can expect to get a solid WR2 for the price of a flex. Draft him/pick him up at auction with his discounted price tag and enjoy his developing rapport with his young and improving QB.
Brian Hartline (Dolphins) – Hartline is a super sleeper at WR for 2012 and beyond. With the departure of Brandon Marshall from Miami Hartline will fall into the #1 WR role in Miami by default. Word out of OTAs is that David Garrard is going to open training camp as the starting QB, and he has the inside track to start come the beginning of the season. Brian Hartline’s value will be similar whether Gararrd or Matt Moore is at QB, as they will have noone else to throw too. Davone Bess is best suited to be a slot receiver, and though Legedue Naanee has looked decent thus far he has been a career dissapointment thus far. Hartline had minor surgery recently and was unable to take part in OTAs, but he will be ready to go for training camp and literally has noone there to challenge him for targets. He will be good for 800+ yards and 3+ TDs on the low end simply as a result of the per capita looks he’ll garner. He is a FA in most leagues, including 16 teamers. Look for him to progress as WR given his expanded role and settle in as Miami’s #2 WR for the foreseeable future. For 2012 he will be their #1, but one has to assume in 2013 when Tannehill is ready to start (maybe) that they will bring in another target to pair with Hartline.
Issac Redman (Steelers) – Redman will inherit the starting RB spot for the Steelers to open the season as Reshard Mendenhall will open the year on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. I don’t see Redman ever giving back that starting gig. He showed flashes of talent down the stretch last season, and given an opportunity to showcase his skills as the feature back he will explode. By the time Mendenhall is full recovered from a torn ACL suffered toward the end of 2011 the Steelers will already be trying to remember who he is. Redman’s ADP right now is incredibly cheap for the feature back on a run first “ground and pound” offense. Sure, Big Ben will air it out a bit more with Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanual Sanders all emerging, but the Steelers will still be a run first play great defense team. Redman will shoulder the load in 2012 while in the process cementing his status and donning the black and gold as the starting RB for the next 5+ years. Scoop him up this year in dynasty leagues and enjoy the wonderful feeling that comes with finding a rare feature back out of thin air.
Rashad Jennings (Jaguars) – Whether Maurice Jones Drew and the Jaguars get this contract mess sorted out or not Jennings is a huge sleep for 2012 and in dynasty leagues especially. His name was called by many savy fantasy owners last season, who went on to see him fall victim to the “year of the torn ACL. He is fully recovered now, and MJD has even more tread on his tires that most of us feared going into 2011. There are consequences to be the ONLY part of your entire team’s offense, and MJD is slowly wearing down. That is why the Jags refuse to give him a new contract and also why he wants one. He is only 27 and was the backup to Fred Taylor for a few years before taking over the features roll, but he has had major knee surgery and has been worked into the ground since taking over the head RB duties. Look for the younger and ultra talented Jennings to get 5-10 carries a game this season even if MJD is with the team. He is their RB of the future as Jones Drew has one elite year left in him at best. Despite rushing for over 1600 yards last season against 11 men in the box on every play he seemed to lack the certain burst that has made him the stellar RB that he has been over the years. If he gets into camp and is ready to go to start the season I wont write him off for 2012, but Jennings will still be in the mix, and Jones Drew’s time will soon be coming to an end. Buy low/sell high on Jennings and MJD this season for dynasty purposes. If the holdout goes well into training camp then bump Jennings way up your draft board for an immediate impact in 2012 as well, I don’t have to remind anyone what a prolonged holdout did to CJ.2YPC last season.
Jason Snelling (Falcons) – Similar to Jennings Snell is a talented backup whose predeccesor is nearing the end of the road. Unlike Jennings Snelling’s immediate impact doesn’t hinder on contract talks. Michael “The Burner” Turner has been extinguished, it was a fun ride while it lasted. Atlanta is going to go with more of a running back by committee (RBBC) approach this year, and Snelling will get the majority of the work. Turner is simply done and Jacquizz Rodgers isn’t built to handle more than a Reggie Bush in New Orleans style role in the offense. Snell has shown talent when given the chance to carry the load and he will be given every opportunity this season. The Facons will also lean towards the pass more than they ever have before with new offensive cordinator Dirk Koetter and the quick progress of absolute freak Julio Jones. That will take more pressure off of the run game, allowing Snelling to find open running lanes as safeties have to play back and worry about the Roddy/Julio home run shot. Snelling has an incredibly low ADP and can most likely be picked up from free agents in every league that isn’t a 16 team one. In 16 team dynasty’s he should be targeted in drafts and traded for right now as his value will never be lower again. Snelling is on the cusp of solid RB numbers.
Kyle Rudolph (Vikings) – Think about where you would be in a dynasty league right now if you had drafted Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham heading into 2011. I am here to help you realize that dream in 2012 by telling you to target Kyle Rudolph. The guy is a monster with amazing hands that will serve as a perfect safety valve for young Christian Ponder. They’re both entering their second years and have to be developing some incredible chemistry with each other, which will be evident on the field this season and for years to come. Don’t let the signing of John Carlson in the offseason scare you away, that guy has never produced in the NFL and was brought in simply as insurance and to play in two tight end sets. Rudolph will be the man in Minnesota, and will quickly develop into a favorite target all over the field for Ponder much like Jimmy Graham was for Drew Brees last season. As with everyone else in this article his ADP is incredibly low considering his ceiling (and floor for that matter), and Rudolph should be scooped up in all drafts this season, especially in a dynasty. He is going to be the next best thing at TE for the next decade. One of my old friends still laments to me about how I stole LaDainian Tomlinson from him years ago in the 1st round of a dynasty league draft when he opted to select Ricky Williams instead…don’t be that guy, you don’t want to miss the boat on Jimmy Graham 2.0.
Jacob Tamme (Broncos) – Peyton Manning touching down in the Mile High city had a residual effect on the fantasy value of so many players, not the least of which will be his former TE, Jacob Tamme. Tamme’s stock skyrocketed the day he followed Manning to Denver, and most fantasy managers appear to have not received the message given how low he is being drafted/valued early on. Peyton has always loved targeting the TE, as evident by the several year of fantasy supremacy enjoyed by Dallas Clark. Tamme stepped in effortlessly for Clark when he went out with an injury in 2010, quickly becoming Manning’s go to guy without skipping a snap. Reunited with Manning Tamme will explode in 2012 and his fantasy dominance will last for the next 2-3 years, until Peyton finally decides to call it a career. Look for Decker and Tamme to be options 1a and 1b in Peyton’s potent offense, racking up the fantasy points at a highly discounted price to the fantasy owner. The familiarity they share with each other will only strengthen Tamme’s cause for looks as the rest of the Broncos get acclimated to the Manning Machine. You wouldn’t be crazy to expect a 1000+ 6-8 season from Tamme this year, and you can still acquire him in a draft or trade for the price of about 250 yards and 2 TD. He is the perfect TE for those not looking to spend the coin necessary to acquire Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski early on. He’ll even come a ton cheaper than the likes of Fred Davis or Jason Witten, who will put up comparable numbers in 2012. For dynasty purposes Tamme is a good get as he is young and will be tied to Peyton for the rest of his career.
