With a brand new NBA season less than a week away, it is once again time for my annual predictions on which teams will fly high, flame out and fall flat on their faces. Before I get into the meat of this column, let me say that, at almost no time in recent memory has there been so much parity in the NBA and so many teams with legitimate chances of being legitimate playoff contenders.
Having said that, I am extremely confident that the majority of my predictions will be very close to what actually transpires on the court for most of the teams in the league. However, there is always at least one or two surprise teams every season and I expect the upcoming 2006-07 season to be no different.
Now enough with the chitchat, away we go.
Atlantic
Here is a look at last season’s final standings.
ATLANTIC W L PCT GB CONF DIV HOME ROAD L 10 STREAK
New Jersey 3 a 49 33 0.598 0.000 33-19 10-6 29-12 20-21 5-5 Lost 2
Philadelphia o 38 44 0.463 11.000 22-30 10-6 23-18 15-26 4-6 Lost 1
Boston o 33 49 0.402 16.000 19-33 10-6 21-20 12-29 3-7 Won 1
Toronto o 27 55 0.329 22.000 20-32 6-10 15-26 12-29 1-9 Lost 2
New York o 23 59 0.280 26.000 15-37 4-12 15-26 8-33 4-6 Won 1
My projected order of finish in 2006-07
New Jersey Nets
I think it is quite possible the Nets will once again win somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 games – especially with the mediocre teams in their division.
Prediction: Let’s call it 50-32 on the nose.
Boston Celtics
If the Celtics don’t make the playoffs this season, I say it’s time for both, head coach, Doc Rivers and GM Danny Ainge to hit the road Jack.
Prediction: 41-41 – and a playoff appearance.
Toronto Raptors
I think it is entirely possible the Raptors could win 40 games this season. They have some fresh new faces that will make immediate contributions – while setting the franchise up for some big-time success next season and beyond.
Prediction: I’m going to say 40-42.
New York Knicks
The Knicks have absolutely nowhere to go but up. They have some talented players too. Believe it or not, I think they will respond better to Isiah Thomas than they ever did to Larry Brown.
Prediction: I think 35 and 47 sounds just about right.
Philadelphia 76ers
I never thought I’d pick the Sixers to have a worse season than the Knicks, but that’s the way I see t right now. The Sixers are a mess – and had better seriously think about trying to lure Larry Brown back into the fold if they ever want to be serious contenders any time soon.
Prediction: 34-48 – and another step backwards.
Central
CENTRAL W L PCT GB CONF DIV HOME ROAD L 10 STREAK
Detroit 1 e 64 18 0.780 0.000 39-13 13-3 37-4 27-14 6-4 Lost 2
Cleveland 4 x 50 32 0.610 14.000 34-18 11-5 31-10 19-22 7-3 Won 2
Indiana 6 x 41 41 0.500 23.000 24-28 6-10 27-14 14-27 6-4 Won 2
Chicago 7 x 41 41 0.500 23.000 30-22 4-12 21-20 20-21 9-1 Won 6
Milwaukee 8 x 40 42 0.488 24.000 29-23 6-10 25-16 15-26 4-6 Lost 1
Detroit
I don’t know why everyone seems to be forgetting about the Pistons as we enter the 2006-07 season. I think they will once again win this division despite head coach, Flip Saunders defensive ineptitude.
Prediction: 55-27
Chicago
I know the Bulls are the “sexy” pick for a lot of basketball analysts this season, and while I think they are going to be even better than they were last season, I’m not about to leap-frog them over Detroit – at least, not just yet.
Prediction: 50-32
Cleveland
The Cavaliers aren’t necessarily going to take a step back from last season, I just think they’ll have a lot tougher competition this season. However, anything is possible once the playoffs begin.
Prediction: 49-33
Indiana
The Pacers should be better than last season with the addition of Al Harrington and the return to health of Jermaine O’Neal. They also have an excellent head coach in Rick Carlisle.
Prediction: 48-34
Milwaukee
The Bucks are another team that is headed in the right direction. Although I’m picking them last in this division, they are undoubtedly better than almost every team in the Atlantic division besides the New Jersey Nets and their record will reflect it.
Prediction: 42-40 – and another trip to the playoffs.
Southeast
SOUTHEAST W L PCT GB CONF DIV HOME ROAD L 10 STREAK
Miami 2 se 52 30 0.634 0.000 35-17 13-3 31-10 21-20 4-6 Lost 3
Washington 5 x 42 40 0.512 10.000 29-23 8-8 27-14 15-26 5-5 Won 3
Orlando o 36 46 0.439 16.000 24-28 9-7 26-15 10-31 8-2 Lost 2
Charlotte o 26 56 0.317 26.000 18-34 5-11 17-24 9-32 6-4 Won 4
Atlanta o 26 56 0.317 26.000 19-33 5-11 18-23 8-33 4-6 Lost 1
Miami
The Heat will probably cruise through the regular season before turning it up just before the playoffs.
Prediction: 52-30 once again – but another appearance in the conference finals at the very least.
Orlando
I like the Magic to be one of the most improved teams in the league this season.
Prediction: 45-37 – and a surprisingly strong playoff run.
Washington
If the Wizards don’t improve their defense – and I’m not sure they have the makeup or will power to get better at that end of the floor – they will be looking at another premature exit come playoff time despite having one of the best offensive teams in the league.
Prediction: I’m thinking their 42 wins from a year ago sounds just about right again, so that’s what I’m going with – and another atrocious defensive season.
Charlotte
The Bobcats are also going to be much improved this season with the addition of Adam Morrison and the return to health of young power forwards, Emeka Okafor and Sean May, not to mention the burgeoning play of point guard Raymond Felton.
Prediction: 32-50 – and a big glimpse of what the future will hold for this team in the near future.
Atlanta
The Hawks appeared to play much better down the stretch last season, but still have more question marks than answers at this point.
Prediction: 30-52 – and another year of watching the playoffs on television.
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals:
Detroit, Miami, Chicago and Cleveland
Eastern Conference Finals:
Miami and Detroit
Eastern Conference Champion:
Detroit Pistons
Northwest
NORTHWEST W L PCT GB CONF DIV HOME ROAD L 10 STREAK
Denver 3 nw 44 38 0.537 0.000 25-27 10-6 26-15 18-23 4-6 Lost 4
Utah o 41 41 0.500 3.000 26-26 11-5 22-19 19-22 7-3 Won 1
Seattle o 35 47 0.427 9.000 20-32 10-6 22-19 13-28 6-4 Won 1
Minnesota o 33 49 0.402 11.000 20-32 6-10 24-17 9-32 3-7 Lost 3
Portland o 21 61 0.256 23.000 10-42 3-13 15-26 6-35 1-9 Lost 8
Denver
The Nuggets still have some serious questions, especially at shooting guard, but their frontcourt players – and two competent point guards, should be enough to help them win this weak division once again.
Prediction: I think 42-40 sounds about right for Denver. Unfortunately, it won’t mean much come playoff time.
Utah
The Jazz have one of the best coaches in the game and should be better with Andrei Kirilenko healthy all season, not to mention another year of experience for point guard Deron Williams. Unfortunately, they still don’t have enough talent to really compete with the powers that be in the western conference.
Prediction: 41-41 and a possible playoff appearance.
Minnesota
The only reason I’m picking the Wolves to leapfrog the Sonics is that I think the addition of guard Randy Foye, is going to pay huge dividends for Minnesota. This kid can really play – and has stardom written all over him. It’s too bad the Wolves still don’t have enough talent surrounding superstar power forward, Kevin Garnett to really compete in the west.
Prediction: 38-44
Seattle
The Sonics have two stars in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. It’s too bad they have a huge hole in the middle where there’s supposed to be a real center.
Prediction: 35-47 once again.
Portland
The Blazers should be a little better this season in year-two under Nate McMillan. Unfortunately this young team still has plenty of growing pains to suffer through.
Prediction: 28-54
Pacific
PACIFIC W L PCT GB CONF DIV HOME ROAD L 10 STREAK
Phoenix 2 p 54 28 0.659 0.000 32-20 10-6 31-10 23-18 5-5 Won 2
L.A. Clippers 6 x 47 35 0.573 7.000 27-25 7-9 27-14 20-21 5-5 Won 1
L.A. Lakers 7 x 45 37 0.549 9.000 27-25 9-7 27-14 18-23 7-3 Won 5
Sacramento 8 x 44 38 0.537 10.000 30-22 10-6 27-14 17-24 8-2 Won 3
Golden State o 34 48 0.415 20.000 19-33 4-12 21-20 13-28 4-6 Lost 1
Phoenix
The Suns are clearly the class of this division – although the Lakers and Kings will be better than they were last season.
Prediction: 52-30 and another strong playoff run.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are very real folks and better yet, have the experience of last season to rely upon this season.
Prediction: 50-32 and another deep playoff run in Clipper land.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers won 45 games last season with Kobe Bryant and a group of under-talented role players. The additions of veterans Vladimir Radmanovic and Maurice Evans should help greatly.
Prediction: 48-34 and another brief playoff appearance
Sacramento
I don’t like the Kings head coach, Eric Mussleman, but his defensive strengths play right into the Ron Artest-led style the Kings will play this year. They will however, miss Bonzi Wells’ offense immensely.
Prediction: 46-36
Golden State
The Warriors will be a much different team this season under Don Nelson, but still need frontcourt help in the worst way.
Prediction: 41-41 and a near-miss come playoff time.
Southwest
SOUTHWEST W L PCT GB CONF DIV HOME ROAD L 10 STREAK
San Antonio 1 w 63 19 0.768 0.000 42-10 13-3 34-7 29-12 7-3 Won 3
Dallas 4 x 60 22 0.732 3.000 37-15 13-3 34-7 26-15 6-4 Lost 1
Memphis 5 x 49 33 0.598 14.000 31-21 6-10 30-11 19-22 8-2 Won 5
NO/Oklahoma City o 38 44 0.463 25.000 25-27 7-9 24-17 14-27 3-7 Lost 4
Houston o 34 48 0.415 29.000 19-33 1-15 15-26 19-22 2-8 Lost 1
Dallas
I think the Mavs will be even better this year because of their narrow miss last season and the enormous experience they gained because of it.
Prediction: 62-20
San Antonio
San Antonio will be back with a vengeance this season – mark my words. Although I don’t have them winning their division, that won’t mean much come playoff time.
Prediction: 60-22
Houston
I’m thinking the Rockets should be better this year with T-Mac and Yao healthy and the big addition of Bonzi Wells. If this team doesn’t make the playoffs, I say it’s time for a major implosion.
Prediction: 45-37 and a mildly strong playoff appearance.
Memphis
The Grizzlies are a team that is changing – and hopefully for the better. However, a playoff appearance is not guaranteed this season.
Prediction: 44-38 and a near-miss come playoff time.
NO/Oklahoma City
The Hornets are another team that is only going to get better with each passing game. However, getting better and making the playoffs are two different thing altogether.
Prediction: 38-44
Western Conference Quarterfinals: Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, Clippers
Western Conference Finals: Dallas and San Antonio
Western Conference Champion: San Antonio
NBA Finals: San Antonio and Detroit
NBA Champion: San Antonio 4-2 over the Pistons
