All week I’ve been making predictions for each award for the 2007 baseball season. Most of the awards I’ve done so far are the minor awards like the Comeback Player of the Year or the Silver Slugger Awards. Now it’s time to start handing out the big awards like the Rookie of the Year, the Cy Young Award, and the MVP.
The Cy Young Award is given to the best pitcher in each league. The National League is a little bit harder to predict than the offensive laden American League. In the National League I could easily see all five of my top five winning the Cy Young. The rest of the crop isn’t bad too.
Despite the Cubs woes recently Carlos Zambrano has managed to avoid the curse; if Zambrano plays like he usually does and the Cubs play well, Zambrano could be a MVP candidate. I also like Jason Jennings this year. Jennings played well his first couple of years then stepped it up in 2006 with a career best 3.78 even though his home ballpark was Coors Field. In Houston Jennings could actually be a legitimate replacement for Pettitte. A couple of West Coast teams, the Dodgers and Giants, are hoping that new acquisitions Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito have Cy Young seasons and I think we might see Tim Hudson bounce back after a bad season. But these guys are the ones to look out for.
5. Chris Carpenter
Chris Carpenter has been very consistent for the Cardinals the past couple of years. Since coming to the Cardinals Carpenter has been in the top ten in wins every season. Carpenter also pitches a whole lot, in 2005 Carpenter was first in the NL in complete games and last year he was second. Carpenter has been one of the leaders in complete games four times and in the top ten in shutouts five times. I think the Cardinals take a step back though and the wins he doesn’t get could ultimately eliminate him.
4. John Smoltz
John Smoltz has returned to the starter role and so far he looks very good. His first two season back Smoltz has posted a 3.06 and a 3.49 ERA. Smoltz’s strikeouts also increased by fifty last season. The Braves could be a playoff team this year which means a good number of wins for Smoltz but the Braves bullpen is going to have to hold on to Smoltz’s leads.
3. Jake Peavy
Let me tell you how good Jake Peavy is. Jake Peavy has a bad season last year and he still came one strikeout shy of the National League lead. Peavy’s ERA last season ballooned to a 4.09 but after posting 2.27 and 2.88 ERAs 2004 and 2005 there is no reason to think he won’t return to pitching that well. The only concern for Peavy again is the amount of wins he is going to accumulate; the West will be a lot tougher this season.
2. Brandon Webb
Brandon Webb is the defending National League Cy Young. Webb has been good longer than that though. Webb’s rookie year posted a 2.84 ERA and has never gone above 3.59. Webb went 16 – 8 last season on a team that wasn’t very good but Webb just insisted they win. He threw five complete games last season, three of them shutouts.
1. Roy Oswalt
Oswalt has some pretty mind amazing numbers if people would take notice. Oswalt’s worst season ERA-wise was in 2004 when he had a 3.49 ERA, the other five years of his career he has had a 3.01 ERA. Oswalt has yet to receive a Cy Young (even though he should have) but he has finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting in five of his first six years. Oswalt has posted records of 14 – 3, 19 – 9, 10 – 5, 20 – 10, 20 – 12, and 15 – 8. He has been the best pitcher in the Majors, other than Johan Santana, for the past six seasons. It is mind boggling that he doesn’t have any hardware yet.
