Setting the Seattle Mariners’ 2013 Lineup for Run Production
COMMENTARY| There is no question that the Seattle Mariners have improved their offense for 2013. Adding veterans (Kendrys Morales and Jason Bay) and familiar faces (Raul Ibanez and Michael Morse), the question is how to get the most production from these weapons.
At Spring Training the Mariners will have about 30 hitters “competing” for spots on the opening day roster. In reality, barring injury, the roster is pretty well set and is likely to include:
Catchers (2): Jesus Montero, plus either Kelly Shoppach or Ronny Paulino.
Infielders (6): Dustin Ackley, Robert Andino, Kendrys Morales, Brendan Ryan, Kyle Seager, and Justin Smoak.
Outfielders (5): Jason Bay, Franklin Gutierrez, Raul Ibanez, Michael Morse, and Michael Saunders.
The most interesting competition of the spring may be to watch Bay and Saunders vs. Mike Carp and Casper Wells. Each of these guys have a history of striking out more than 25 times per 100 at bats (AB), far more often than anyone else listed above. Improvement here may be what Carp or Wells need to make the team.
If I were the Manager today, tasked with getting the most out of my lineup, here is who I would go with:
1. Franklin Gutierrez, CF, bats right: A leadoff hitter should get on base a lot and have the speed to steal second. If he can stay healthy, Gutierrez will likely lead the club in steals, though it may only be about 20-25 thefts.
2. Raul Ibanez, OF, bats left: I’m hesitant to rely on Raul’s defense, but can’t ignore his bat. Of the players in this lineup he is in the top three in batting average (.278), on base percentage (.340), home run ratio (4 per 100 AB), and strikeout ratio (less than 18 per 100 AB). He can take a pitch or two for Guti to steal, reliably protect in a hit and run, and deliver 20+ home runs.
3. Michael Morse, OF, bats right: Morse was signed for one thing, to hit the long ball. We need him in the third spot, where we can feed the beast with a guaranteed plate appearance in the first inning of every game.
4. Kendrys Morales, DH, switch: I didn’t like seeing Jason Vargas go to the Angels. That being said, Kendrys Morales hits nearly 5 homers per 100 at bats, the most in this lineup. After Ibanez and Morse both smash the ball, opponents will be hard pressed to choose a relief pitcher to face Morales, as he will produce from both sides of the plate.
5. Justin Smoak, 1B, switch: Hitting is contagious. I fully expect Justin to fluorish when he can be just one of the guys hitting home runs, rather than being pressed upon to produce when all around him are struggling. Like Morales before him, he is also able to hit from either batter’s box.
6. Kyle Seager, 3B, bats left: I could have been happy Kyle leading off, if he just had a little more speed. He has a very discerning eye (less than 19 strikeouts per 100 AB) and enough power to belong at third base. If we have a rally that gets through the first five hitters, there’s a very good chance Seager will keep it going.
7. Jesus Montero, C, bats right: In his first full major league season, Jesus hit 15 home runs for the Mariners in 2012. Now a year older and wiser, we can expect more. If he can catch the hitting bug spreading from his teammates, Montero could make it six Mariners in a row with 20 or more home runs in 2013.
8. Dustin Ackley, 2B, bats left: Projected by many as the leadoff hitter, Ackley trails Gutierrez (for their careers) in batting average, as well as frequency of stolen bases and home runs. Over the course of a 162 game season, however, we may find Dustin earning the top spot.
9. Brendan Ryan, SS, bats right: Some say Ryan only belongs on the team because of his defense. For his MLB career, however, he strikes out less often (17 per 100 AB) than any other player in this lineup and is tied with Gutierrez for the most steals (3 per 100 AB). Keeping with the theme that hitting is contagious, I can see Ryan hitting for an average around .240 in 2013. Not bad at all for a potential gold glover.
On the Bench: I would love to see Michael Saunders in the outfield and running the bases, but he needs to cut down on his strikeout ratio (28 per 100 AB), as does Jason Bay (26 per 100 AB). Robert Andino is the utility infielder on my roster, though he could battle Ackley at second base with a strong Spring performance (having Ackley as a second left-handed pinch hitter wouldn’t be all bad). Finally there needs to be a second catcher. Whether it be Kelly Shoppach or Ronny Paulino, the Mariners will have an experienced veteran to back up Jesus Montero behind the plate.
With the additional firepower in the 2013 lineup, Seattle should increase their win total again. The arrival of Houston into the division also means the Mariners will add 19 games against the worst team in all of baseball last year. All the more reason for Mariners’ fans to be optimistic about the upcoming season.
Harold Andrews has cheered for the Mariners since their inception in 1977 (as well as the Pilots in 1969). He remains optimistic of one day seeing them in a World Series.
