10. 14-Tony Stewart, (Stewart Haas Racing Chevrolet)
Stewart was unable to deliver an encore to his astonishing 2011 championship run. Despite falling short, he still won three times, and easily qualified for the Chase for the Championship. Stewart Haas Racing will undergo some changes in 2013, such as adding a third team for Danica Patrick, sponsorship shopping, as well as prepping for possibly adding a fourth team. While distractions typically do not hinder the three-time champion, I believe that Stewart will again fall short of capturing his fourth Sprint Cup title.
9. 20-Matt Kenseth, (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
Kenseth joins Joe Gibbs Racing after thirteen seasons with Roush Fenway Racing at the Sprint Cup level. While a change of scenery is typically not a bad thing, as Clint Bowyer and Kasey Kahne recently established, it is difficult to project him as the championship favorite in his first year with a new team. With that said, Kenseth is perfect for this organization, and will make himself, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin better drivers. Eventually, I see Kenseth winning a championship with JGR.
8. 16-Greg Biffle, (Roush Fenway Racing Ford)
With Kenseth no longer in the Roush stables, I believe this is the year that Biffle will emerge as Roush’s best driver. This is no knock on Carl Edwards by any means, but it appears that Biffle and crew chief Matt Puccia have a unique chemistry that is only going to improve as time progresses. Biffle will win multiple races, and compete for the title. While I believe he may come up short again, he has proven that he shall not be disregarded. Along with Kenseth, Biffle is arguably the most underappreciated driver in the NASCAR garage.
7. 2-Brad Keselowski, (Penske Racing Ford)
Keselowski was downright impressive in 2012 en route to his first Cup title. I truly believe there will be more championships in the future for Keselowski, just not in 2013. A combination of several circumstances such as the new generation of race cars, a manufacturer switch, and other teams gaining on this team’s program will prevent Keselowski from pulling off the repeat. However, Jimmie Johnson was able to accomplish the repeat in 2007 when the sport phased in the Car of Tomorrow. It is not impossible, just not likely. Keselowski will probably win multiple races, and easily earn a spot in the championship chase.
6. 11-Denny Hamlin, (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
Again, it appeared as if Hamlin was poised for another run at Johnson in the title chase. Instead, he faded as Keselowski ended up stealing the show. There is still a window for Hamlin to earn that first championship. Nonetheless, he is in the peak of his career, and there is a new generation of talent that is climbing the NASCAR ladder. Hamlin should compete for the title once again, but he needs to avoid a late-season wobble (no pun intended) in order to finally earn that trophy. As usual, he will win a bundle of races.
5. 5-Kasey Kahne, (Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
Kahne finally proved that with a stable organization, he can win races and become a consistent frontrunner. Stability is something he did not have previously with the No. 9 team and its host of owners. Now that he has finally arrived at top tier level, look for Kahne to continue to win multiple races per year, and emerge as a recurrent championship contender. I believe that he will put a scare into the top contenders, but will fall just a bit short of his first championship in 2013.
4. 24-Jeff Gordon, (Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
Gordon has lacked that killer instinct he possessed in the 1990’s and early 2000’s. He may have reclaimed it in 2012. Tired of being pushed around and losing races he should win, we saw a renewed fire in Gordon. While I strongly disagree with his misguided retaliation on Clint Bowyer at Phoenix, he showed that he is serious about winning and has not lost that fire that drove him to four championships in six years from 1995 to 2001. Gordon will be in the thick of the hunt all year, and we could see some interesting battles right down to the end of the season between he and Bowyer.
3. 18-Kyle Busch, (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
In years past, when Busch is in the Chase, he tends to fall off the radar. Last year, he missed the cut, yet he was one of the most impressive drivers throughout the final ten races. If he can put together a complete season, he will be in the championship hunt when the series hits Homestead in November. This could be the year in which Busch firmly establishes himself as more than just a frequent winner, but also a championship contender.
2. 48-Jimmie Johnson, (Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
You can never truly dismiss Johnson as a championship threat. It does not matter what generation of car NASCAR puts on the track, Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus will find an edge. As usual, expect Johnson win about four or five races, and be in the thick of the championship clash as the season winds down. This could easily be the season in which Johnson finally wins his sixth championship, moving to just one behind stock car luminaries Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty.
1. 15-Clint Bowyer, (Michael Waltrip Racing)
While most analysts are sticking to the safe picks of Johnson, Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin, I am going out on a limb by projecting that Bowyer will end that second place hangover myth by hoisting the championship trophy in November. Behind Johnson/Knaus and Keselowski/Paul Wolfe, Bowyer and Brian Pattie may be the most dangerous driver/crew chief combination in the sport. Like his foe Gordon, Bowyer has a new-found fire that was sparked by the retaliatory wreck at Phoenix. I believe we are going to witness some intriguing duels between Bowyer and Gordon. Let us just hope that they do not impact the title race.
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