You can almost set your watch by the Philadelphia Phillies closer Brad Lidge. For the third time in four years the Phillies announced Lidge will begin the season on the disabled list. Lidge’s arm problems raise serious questions about his short term ability to shut down the opposition and his long term viability as a closer.
Plagued by arm problems the last several years, this spring’s news of Lidge’s self-professed health was as welcome to the Phillies as Hosni Mubarak’s exile was to the the people of Egypt. According to Lidge it’s the first season he’s reported to camp 100% healthy. No knee problems (2008 WS pile-on), no elbow issues or shoulder problems. However, when Lidge’s velocity hovered in the 86-88 mph range many became concerned. Lidge consistently stated he wasn’t worried and that his velocity would come around. Unfortunately his velocity has not improved this year, and has consistently dropped over the past six seasons.
Early in his career Lidge was better known for his blazing heat than the nasty slider that devastated the National League for several years. During the 2008 season Lidge continued to make seasoned hitters look like rookies during the Phils run through the Fall Classic. On April 23, 2007 Lidge was clocked at 100 mph, ironically as a Houston Astro at Citizen’s Bank Park against the Phillies. After his 2008 trade to the Phillies Lidge was occasionally clocked as high as 96-98 mph, but in each succeeding year his velocity has slipped 2-3 mph each year. Since his perfect 41-41 save performance of 2008 Lidge had a horrendous 2009, slow first half of 2010 with a very respectable second half last year.
While poring through statistics I noticed some interesting trends by comparing Lidge’s last three years in Houston compared to his first three years in Philly. (NOTE- all stats are listed in 2005-2006-2007 and 2008-2009-2010 format). Lidge had an excellent to outstanding first year, a blowup second year and respectable to very good third year.
Earned Run Average (ERA): HOU 2.29-5.28-3.36 PHL 1.95-7.21-2.96 In 2005 and 2008 Lidge dominated in most statistical categories key to relievers. In 2006 and 2009 Lidge threw too many hittable pitches in the strike zone. Major league hitters get paid to hit mistakes, and they did.
Saves (SV); HOU 42-32-19 PHL 41-31-27
By today’s standards 30 saves is a decent year, but not what is expected for a top-shelf closer. In these comparative periods there is a downward progression for each three-year period.
Home Runs (HR): HOU 5-10-9 PHL 2-11-5
When a power pitcher loses velocity, can’t locate his pitches and can’t get his breaking pitch to bite it’s generally meatball time. When Lidge dominated in 2008 his out pitch was the filthy slider that virtually never was thrown in the strike zone. Batters wailed helplessly at what looked like a strike when the ball was released but suddenly plummeted earthward. While Lidge experienced knee problems and pitched through them he ultimately developed arm problems. His slider morphed from a frisbee to a dead fish, was flat and unpredictably wild. Hitters laid off the slider and waited for a fastball that by today’s standards was about Reading Phillies caliber and straight. Boo-ya!
Strikeouts (K): HOU 103-104-88 PHL 92-61-52
(See filthy slider and velocity above) In this year by year downward trend the exception is his K totals in 2005-2006 were within one of each other.
Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched (WHIP): HOU 1.14-1.41-1.25 PHL 1.22-1.80-1.22
These numbers are respectable by most standards but walks are problematic for a closer serving meatballs. If you can manage to keep runners off base the occasional home run will only hurt you, not kill you. Again, the similar pattern of good year -bad year-good year persists.
Hits per 9 Innings (H/9): HOU 7.4-8.3-7.3 PHL 6.5-11.0-6.3
If Lidge were a starter, every year except 2008 was a very respectable year.
Other key metrics following the same pattern are BB/9, K’s/9 and K/BB ratio. What does all this data mean? Baseball has become highly technical in how they crunch and analyze these numbers. Is Brad Lidge finished as a closer? Maybe, but only time will tell. No one in their right mind expected Lidge to perform up to his 2008 standard. How many pitchers could?
For the most part the Phillies starters have pitched well this spring, with Cole Hamels being the exception. Ironically Hamels career seems to be taking a similar pattern of good-bad-good, and that being the case Hamels needs to recover from a poor spring quickly. Granted the expectations for the Phillies starting pitching is high but they will not pitch into the eighth inning every game. There will be the occasional early hook and Phils will need reliable mop-up, set-up and shut down pitching. Lidge’s absence leaves another closer by committee with Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras as the obvious candidates. In the past Madson has dominated in the set-up role, but struggled in the closer’s role. Contreras may be aging, but did anyone ever hear of a guy named Rivera? The committee might succeed in the short term few teams succeed without a reliable shut-down stud in the pen.
2011 is a contract year for Lidge. Based solely on his arm troubles it is highly unlikely the Phillies will re-sign him as a closer. Does that mean he’s washed-up, finished? As closers age they frequently adapt and re-invent themselves. If they don’t they are forced to relinquish their closer title and accept a lesser role. Based on his ability to rebound in the past don’t count Lidge out just yet, just don’t bank on him though.
Although the Phillies have no heir-apparent to Lidge in their farm system they may have plenty of room to deal in the off-season with Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez also playing for contracts. Rollins, a perennial fan favorite seems to be the only one with a chance of returning. After reacquiring Cliff Lee for the second time in two years it’s hard to imagine anything being outside the realm of possibility with Phils GM Reuben Amaro.
Considering the chronic struggles of Lidge, Chase Utley’s return uncertain and a major question mark in right field – if you’ve penciled the Phillies in as your 2011 World Series winner – you might want to make sure your pencil has an eraser.
Sources: www.baseball-reference.com ; www.baseball-almanac.com
