George Friedman, the Futurist
“There’s a kind of sense of unreality that we’re looking at here. Nobody’s really talking about how we’re going to manage a world that looks at the United States and is jealous and bitter. The issue we’re missing is that we are reading our own prosperity as a global phenomenon, and it isn’t.”– George Friedman
Dr. George Friedman is the founder and chief executive of STRATFOR, a leading company in the field of private global intelligence that provides “strategic forecasting” studies on a daily basis to his subscribers (“Commentary – George Friedman”). He spent nearly twenty years at Dickson University instructing political science, concentrating on topics like Marxism and international conflict. Having also regularly worked with and advised senior military commanders, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), and the United States Army War College, Dr. Friedman is very involved with matters of national security and defense. He incorporates this military perspective into many of his futurist works, including The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, The Future of War: Power, Technology, and American World Dominance in the Twenty-First Century, and The Coming War With Japan (“George Friedman”). The CEO of STRATFOR, Dr. George Friedman is considered an expert in analyzing national security and intelligence, and he uses this expertise in forecasting the near future’s military conflicts, political struggles, and cultural trends.
Dr. George Friedman’s most recent work, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, covers many different aspects of the century and provides a multitude of evidence backing each case he discusses. He talks about the methods of acquiring solar energy and eliminating the need for fossil fuels. What is interesting is that he goes over factual data illustrating the efficiency of solar panels as we know them today, and that it would take covering most of the Midwest with solar panels just to produce enough energy for Americans to use today, let alone in the future. The solution, he claims, will be in the harvesting of solar energy from space and beaming it down to earth in some form. The security in such a system is provided by the fact that the United States military will still be the dominant force, and the Air Force will control space. Dr. Friedman discusses the current idea that China’s economy will boom and overcome that of the United States. He states that this notion, “that China will grow fast enough to overtake the United States in less than several generations, at best, is I think a very far-fetched idea.” With actual facts and figures of the Chinese economy, growth rate, and average annual income, he concludes by comparing its economy to sub-Saharan Africa. In terms of international conflict, Dr. Friedman analyzes the influence of Russia over its surrounding neighbors, as well as its power compared to that of the United States. He sees Russia dipping into middle-eastern affairs and causing tension with the United States, although he does not see any actual combat breaking out between the two nations (Friedman). However, with any international conflict comes a surge in technological advancement, which is discussed in another of his other books, The Future of War.
The Future of War: Power, Technology, and American World Dominance in the Twenty-First Century, predicts the direction in which the United Stated military will head. He is very certain that the United States will continue to lead the way in incorporating the latest technological finds into warfare machinery and equipment, thus saving lives and providing an edge to the Americans. Dr. Friedman looks at how recent military technologies, particularly unmanned vehicles and drones, have had such a large impact on forces in the middle-east and envisions the new era of battlefields as having little or no human soldiers risking their lives in traditional combat methods. With control of the space frontier, the United States Air Force will be able to handle any conflicts by guiding extremely precise and accurate munitions to their destinations, eliminating the need for deploying troops, tanks, warships, or warplanes (“The Future of War Summary”).
Dr. George Friedman goes over the building power struggle between the United States and Japan in his book Coming War With Japan. He is sure that this conflict will dominate the coming generation as the Soviet-American conflict has dominated the past two generations. He states the problem is that Japan will refuse to accept a lower level of supremacy than the United States, turning down the “idea that in the next 20 or 30 years of Japan’s economic life — the dynamics of its life; its growth and its expansion — will depend on the United States” (Friedman). Similarly, the United States will refuse to recognize Japan as the dominant figure in Western Pacific. He continues to discuss possible situations should a conflict arise. Since Japan carries a very independent attitude despite its heavy dependence on the United States, from importing essential raw materials all the way to purchasing military aircraft, Dr. Friedman believes they will suffer a hard blow during any clash with the United States (Lamb).
Dr. George Friedman, Chief Executive Officer for STRATFOR, is a modern futurist who envisions and shapes geopolitical forecasts. He uses his strong background in political science and experience with national defense agencies to predict situations concerning international conflict and technological warfare. As an author of many published works, some of which are New York Times Bestsellers, Dr. Friedman has developed into a very credible source for analyzing current and potential international affairs, warfare, and intelligence. He is often called onto major television and radio networks for his expertise in these matters (“Dr. George Friedman”). His books The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, The Future of War: Power, Technology, and American World Dominance in the Twenty-First Century, and The Coming War With Japan are full of valid, factually supported forecasts for the coming century.
Works Cited
“Commentary – George Friedman.” Future Brief. 2004. Web. 30 Sept. 2010.
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“Dr. George Friedman.” STRATFOR – Geopolitical Intelligence, Economic, Political, and
Military Strategic Forecasting | STRATFOR. 2010. Web. 30 Sept. 2010. .
Friedman, George. The Next 100 Years: A forecast for the 21st Century. STRATFOR, 2010.
Flash video file. .
“George Friedman.” Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia. 17 Sept. 2010. Web. 30 Sept. 2010.
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Lamb, Brian. “The Coming War With Japan“. Interview with George Friedman and Meredith
LeBard. Booknotes. 9 June, 1991. Web. 30 Sept. 2010. .
The Future of War Summary.” ENotes – Literature Study Guides, Lesson Plans, and More. 29
Sept. 2010. Web. 30 Sept. 2010. .
