Presidential Race 2016

It is, perhaps, regrettable that the race for president begins almost before the previous race is over. But, regrettable or not, it is a fact that it does. Long before candidates announce, they are putting together teams of advisers and considering their options. It’s February, 2013. But the race for the White House is on. Public Policy Polling (PPP) has already begun polling the 2016 presidential race. There’s already a Wikipedia page about the race. Googling “2016 presidential race” yields almost 5 million hits.

For the Democrats, the big question is: Will Hillary Clinton run? She has not announced, but many people suspect she will run. ABC News quoted “insiders” as saying it was a “done deal”. If she does run, she is certainly the front runner for the Democratic nomination. And, if she gets the nomination, she is, right now, likely to win the race against any of a number of feasible candidates.

Nationwide

In early February PPP found Marco Rubio leading among Republicans and Hillary Clinton among Democrats, but Clinton dominates the Democratic field much more than Rubio does the Republicans. In a head-to-head between these two, Clinton would win by 8 points. But presidential races aren’t decided by national popular votes, they are decided by the states.

Louisiana

On Feb 14, PPP released a poll of the race in Louisiana. In 2012, Romney won Louisiana 57-40. But it looks a lot more competitive in 2016. PPP has Clinton tied with Paul Ryan (46 percent each) and leading Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal by 3 points. This is despite the fact that Obama has a poor approval rating in Louisiana (43 percent approval, 55 do not).

Alaska

A PPP poll from Feb 8, 2013 showed that Hillary Clinton would be competitive in Alaska, where she leads Marco Rubio by 1 and trails Chris Christie by 1. In 2012, Romney won Alaska by 15 points (she also beats Sarah Palin in Palin’s home state by 16 points).

Louisiana and Alaska are traditionally Republican states, but neither is very populous. Then there’s Texas, the second most populous state in the union (after California). And the news for the Republicans there is just as bad. Clinton is competitive against the major Republican candidates in Texas: She would beat Rubio by 1, Christie by 2 and Rick Perry by 8 (Romney beat Obama by 11). Given that California and New York are highly Democratic states, Clinton being competitive in Texas is huge. It is very difficult to see how any Republican could win while losing all three of these states. The last time Texas voted for a Democrat for president was 1972.

Florida

The news in Florida is slightly less good for the Democrats, but only in relative terms. Hillary Clinton leads Marco Rubio by 4 and Jeb Bush by 5; but Obama won Florida narrowly in 2012. Compare that with Kentucky, where a December 2012 poll by PPP found Clinton beating native son Rand Paul by 5 and Marco Rubio by 8. That would be quite a switch from 2012, when Kentucky gave Romney one of his biggest wins: He beat Obama by 22 points.

Cautions:
The biggest caution, of course, is that it’s still early. Another big one is name recognition. Hillary Clinton probably starts out with name recognition that is as high or higher than any other candidate (and higher than nearly all candidates in recent elections at this point in the cycle, other than those running for re-election. In addition, Clinton’s role as Secretary of State has been fairly non-partisan, letting her appeal to moderate Republicans.

Sources:
2012 and earlier election results: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

PPP: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/.services/blog/6a0133f2dd8001970b0133f2dd8b04970b/search/page/2/?filter.q=Hillary+Clinton

ABC http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/hillary-clinton-2016-insider-rumors-claim-deal-18518855