With NHL Lockout Over, Will AHL Attendance Fall?

With it’s sibling sidelined for 113 days, the American Hockey League temporarily enjoyed pro-hockey supremacy in North America. And with that supremacy came more more media interest, more exposure, and apparently, more fans in seats.

AHL.com reported that “through Jan. 1, AHL attendance league-wide is up 6.8 percent from the same point last season, with 30 teams averaging 5,386 fans per game.”

During the 2004-05 National Hockey League lockout the AHL enjoyed a similar 6.5% increase in regular season attendance , but those numbers retreated the following year.

Having emerged as the NHL’s top development league, the AHL enjoys a close relationship with Gary Bettman’s organization. AHL president Dave Andrews didn’t gloat when the NHL shut its door’s.

And Andrews remains diplomatic now – diplomatic and confident.

In an interview with Lindsay Kramer of the Syracuse Post-Standard, Andrews said, “I think that having the NHL back is critically important for everyone in hockey. We’re looking forward to business as usual. We had a good, competitive league for 76 years before this lockout, and we’ll be fine.”

Over those 76 seasons the AHL has had its share of ups and downs. The league has grown steady since almost folding in the 1970s – absorbing the rival International Hockey League in 2000 – and the AHL now enjoys an all-time franchise high with 30 squads skating in its rinks.

But success is distributed unevenly across its landscape, and its debatable how much the NHL lockout has affected AHL attendance this season. The reported 6.8% increase is calculated against attendance this time last year, but that figure is 4.5% below last year’s final regular season average of 5,638.

The AHL will need a second-half attendance surge to match last year’s numbers, but with the NHL retuning to play should the AHL worry?

Kramer feels the Syracuse Crunch won’t see an erosion in interest. “Some AHL franchises, such as Toronto, Hamilton and Chicago, likely got gate boosts from the shutdown of NHL teams in their market,” argued Kramer. “Many others, like Syracuse, had jumps unrelated by fans’ longing for the NHL.”

No doubt one of those “unrelated jumps” was last year’s Calder Cup champions landing in Syracuse, the result of an NHL affiliation change.

The Toronto Marlies have enjoyed a 30% increase in this year’s attendance over last year’s final numbers. But the Marlies have shown four consecutive years of attendance growth, and battling to the championship last year hasn’t hurt interest.

While Syracuse and Toronto may be succeeding despite the dysfunctional NHL, others appear to be failing even with obvious lockout advantages.

The Oklahoma Barons, top affiliate of the Edmonton Oilers, enjoyed the NHL-calibre presence of forwards Taylor Hall, Jorden Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and defenceman Justin Schultz . Eberle and Shultz were first and third respectively in AHL scoring when the NHL lockout ended.

Despite this, Oklahoma’s attendance is locked in the in AHL’s basement. SBNation’s Copper and Blue reported that Edmonton may move the team concluding that “If Stockton [California] can draw nearly 6,000 fans per game for the ECHL, there are certainly more fruitful markets available to the Oilers for their AHL affiliate.”

It isn’t clear if the lockout propped up the AHL’s popular teams’ attendance, but it certainly hasn’t helped the league’s laggards

 

Brent Lemon’s (sometimes ridiculous) thoughts on hockey have appeared in a variety of print and online media, including Yahoo! Sports’ NHL Blog, Puck Daddy, and USA Today publications.