How to Predict What Will Become Valuable Collectibles Twenty Years from Now

The world of collecting seems to have undergone a substantial change from where it was twenty, thirty or fifty years ago, but the change may not be as monumental as you think. Few people were saving things like Pez dispensers, lunchboxes and movie posters half a century ago. Today, everybody is saving those things along with baseball cards, toys and consumer advertising products. We’ve gotten much smarter, right?

Maybe not. Maybe it is just a case, like fifty years ago, where people are saving the wrong things. Since everybody went out and bought up new “Star Wars” action figures when they were first released, chances are they aren’t going to increase in value nearly as much as the original figures from 1977 when 90% ended up broken, trashed or damaged beyond any value. You know what is going to increase in value in another twenty years more than anything you’ve got in your house?

Me, either. But I know how to increase your odds that what you have to sell collectors twenty years from now brings a lot more money than what your neighbor with the storage locker filled with Star Wars prequel action figures or every single example of “Twilight” merchandise is going to get.

What is Everybody Casually Throwing Away Today?

You know why a mint condition poster of a movie from the 1930s most people have never even seen is worth so much? Because movie theater owners and studios routinely trashed them once the movie had completed its run. Nobody cared about buying movie posters in the 1930s because nobody could afford them. Look around and try to locate today’s equivalent of 1930s movie posters. What items do people not even think twice about holding onto because they can’t imagine a market ever appearing that serves to increase the value. Cell phones? Remote controls? Video game accessories like Rock Band guitars? If you want to know what is likely to increase in value twenty years from now, analyze what people consider to have absolutely no value today.

Is a Kid Playing With It?

Think of the items that have become collectible and when they did so. “Star Wars” toys didn’t really start taking off until that initial audience of kids hit the age at which they were looking to recapture their youth. The nostalgia factor is a big time player in the game of predicting what will be collectible. When examining what is being thrown away, pay special interest to what kids and tweens can’t live without today but have discarded by the next year. That decision to throw them away or allow their parents to casually dispose of them is an elemental part of the DNA of collectability. Eventually, memories of great times are going to return and create a collective love among an entire generation for popular items that are not easy to get because of a mass extinction.

Obsolescence Equals Opportunity

Ever notice that popular collectibles often began life as utilitarian necessities that eventually got replaced by technological improvements or lifestyle changes and are now beloved not for their use but precisely because of their lack of use? A 1959 typewriter is less useful than a 1999 computer and despite the fact that the older computer can still be useful, it is the outdated technology that is more valuable. Look around to see what products are being phased out into the cornfield of the useless and then narrow them down to those that nobody else is holding onto. You can then narrow these gambles even further by only obtaining examples that are in excellent condition or that exhibit an individualized sense of style.

Mass Appeal

The best of all possible worlds is to discover an object that few people deem worthy enough to hold onto, that will have a sense of nostalgia a few decades hence, that has become obsolete, that can be cheaply purchased in excellent condition…and that will appeal to those of differing interests. For instance, a first edition science textbook signed by the author can have collectible appeal to those who buy first editions, those with an interest in a specific scientific field and autograph collectors. Try to locate an item that fits all the other criteria for potential value as a collectible that will be appealing to more than just someone with an interest in toys associated with a specific movie or items from a specific decade or examples of a specific art movement.