2012-2013 BCS NCAA Football Championship Contenders: Week 5

As of September 30, 2012, there are 19 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) with an opportunity* to play in the BCS National Championship Game, January 7, 2013, at Sun Life Stadium. Here are all of the contenders, ranked in order from having the easiest to the most difficult path to the championship game.

1. Louisville, 5-0: The Cardinals have not played any ranked teams and have only one on their schedule, #22 Rutgers in their final game on November 29th. Unless there are at least two other unbeaten teams remaining, with a 12-0 record Louisville would be in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game.

2. Rutgers, 4-0: The Scarlet Knights only ranked opponent will be #19 Louisville, November 29th. The reason they are ranked behind the Cardinals is because they have eight total games remaining, compared to seven for Louisville.

3. Florida State, 5-0: The Seminoles have only one AP Top 25 team remaining on their schedule, #10 Florida, on November 24th. To finish a perfect 13-0, they will then need to win the ACC Championship Game on Saturday, December 1st.

4. Northwestern, 5-0: Surprisingly, the Wildcats have a chance to go unbeaten in the Big Ten with only one game against a ranked opponent, #21 Nebraska on October 20th. To finish 13-0, they would then need to win the Big Ten Championship Game on December 1st.

5. Alabama, 5-0: The defending national champion Crimson Tide is currently ranked #1. They will be heavily favored over each of their remaining opponents, including #20 Mississippi State and #4 LSU, especially if LSU loses before their meeting on November 3rd.

6. Cincinnati, 3-0: The Bearcats only have two ranked teams on their schedule, #19 Louisville on October 26th, and #22 Rutgers on November 17th. With a perfect 12-0 season, as the Big East champion, they would be on their way to the BCS National Championship Game unless there are at least two other unbeatens remaining.

7. Kansas State, 4-0: The Wildcats have the easiest path to finish 12-0 and win the Big 12, the strongest conference in the country. They have three remaining opponents currently in the top 15; #8 West Virginia, #11 Texas, and #15 TCU.

8. Notre Dame, 4-0: As an independent, the Irish need to beat quality opponents. They have already beaten #10 Michigan and #18 Michigan, and have remaining dates with three more teams in the top 18; #18 Stanford, #17 Oklahoma, plus a season-ending game against #13 USC. Five wins against ranked opponents would surely give Notre Dame a spot in the BCS National Championship Game.

9. West Virginia, TCU, and Texas, 4-0: The Mountaineers, Horned Frogs, and Longhorns each have four remaining opponents in the top 17, to finish 12-0 as the Big 12 champion.

12. Georgia, 5-0: Georgia has the easiest path to win the SEC, as the only contender who will not play either Alabama or LSU in the regular season. They will, however, face two ranked opponents in October; #6 South Carolina and #10 Florida, and then have the SEC Championship Game to play.

13. Oregon State, 3-0: The biggest suprise of the 2012 season thus far, the Beavers have already beaten #13 Wisconsin and #19 UCLA. To win the Pac-12, however, they still need to defeat three more ranked teams, including #2 Oregon in the November 24th Civil War. If the Beavers remain unbeaten at that point, all that will remain is the 2012 Pac-12 Championship Game on November 30th.

14. Oregon, 5-0: The Ducks are currently ranked #2, but to stay unbeaten they will need to defeat four more teams currently ranked in the top 25, plus a potential fifth in the PAC-12 Championship Game.

15. South Carolina, 5-0: The sixth-ranked Gamecocks have three consecutive ranked opponents looming to begin October; #5 Georgia, #4 LSU, and #10 Florida. If they survive unscathed, they would still have one more, #15 Clemson on November 24th, plus the SEC Championship Game in a likely battle with #1 Alabama.

16. LSU, 5-0: The Tigers are currently ranked #4, but have not played any ranked opponents. That changes October 6th, when they host #10 Florida. Get by that game and their will be three more teams in the current top 20 remaining, including the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide on November 3rd.

17. Texas Tech, 4-0: To finish 12-0 and win the Big 12, the Red Raiders have the most difficult schedule ahead, with five top 17 opponents, in five consecutive weeks beginning October 6th.

18. Mississippi State, 4-0: The Bulldogs only have to beat two ranked teams to win the SEC West. Those two teams, however, are #1 Alabama and #4 LSU.

19. Florida, 4-0: The Gators have the most difficult remaining schedule of any team in the nation, meeting four of the top six teams in the current AP rankings; #3 Florida State, #4 LSU, #5 Georgia, and #6 South Carolina. If they survive those matchups, they would like meet current #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Prediction: The 2013 BCS National Championship Game will be between the champions of the SEC and Big-12 conferences, provided they are both unbeaten.

* I believe more than one team will be unbeaten at the end of the season. Thus, all teams that have a loss have already been eliminated. Also, I don’t believe the BCS format would allow a team from the MAC or WAC to play in the championship game, which may be unfair to currently unbeaten teams from Ohio, Texas-San Antonio, and Louisiana Tech.

Harold Andrews has been a fan of the Oregon Ducks for nearly 50 years, through the bad and recent good years.

source:
espn.com