2007 NBA Season Preview – Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets
’06-’07 Record/Standing: 52-30 (.634), 3^rd in Southwest Division
’06-’07 Postseason (if applicable): Lost in Western Conference Quarterfinals (4-3 to Utah)
Coach (Record): Rick Adelman, 1^st season w/Houston, 17^th season overall
Key Additions: PG Aaron Brooks (draft; 1^st round, 26^th overall); PG Mike James (trade; Minnesota); PF Luis Scola (trade; San Antonio); G Steve Francis (FA; Portland)
Key Losses: PF/C Juwan Howard (trade; Minnesota)

Few teams in the NBA have made as many moves to improve their roster as the Houston Rockets did in the offseason. The Rockets were already a top team, winning 52 games and having home-court advantage over the Utah Jazz during the playoffs last season. But complacency was not the word of the day in H-Town. Gone is coach Jeff Van Gundy and in is former Portland, Golden State, and Sacramento head coach Rich Adelman. Adelman inherits a team stocked with talent all over the court; they are hoping that he can put it all together and make a run for an NBA title. From the top of the roster to the bottom, there is talent. Houston wants to see them all put it together this season and take control of the Western Conference. Some are saying that they are one of the teams fighting for the NBA Title.

However, all is not perfect in Houston. Can their two superstar duo of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming lead the Rockets into postseason success? This is a Houston team that has lost in the first round in three of the past four seasons and did not even qualify for the playoffs in the fourth of those years. Have the Rockets made too many changes? Some people believe that the trade for Luis Scola from San Antonio was risky, as was signing former Rockets’ star Steve Francis. Do these pieces have enough to contribute for the team? Can they avoid the injuries that have plagued the team over the past two seasons?

Projected Starting Lineup (’06-’07 Stats)
PG: Mike James (w/Minnesota: 82 games, 10.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.6 apg)
SG: Luther Head (80 games, 10.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.4 apg)
SF: Tracy McGrady (71 games, 24.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 6.5 apg)
PF: Shane Battier (82 games, 10.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.1 apg)
C: Yao Ming (48 games, 25.0 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.0 apg)

Backcourt: Talk about a crowded backcourt. This is one that will be hard to examine because you really don’t know who will start at point guard or who will even be on the team’s roster once they are finished with the work. You would have to think that either Mike James, acquired in a trade from Minnesota, or incumbent Rafer Alston will figure as the starter. The Rockets were not 100% satisfied with Alston, as evidenced by their aggressive negotiations with Minnesota to acquire James. I would venture a guess to say that James will be the starter. James started 65 games in Minnesota last season and would give the Rockets the point guard they have been looking for. James can score at times, but he is usually giving it up to teammates. That could be perfect for Tracy McGrady. It really depends on what head coach Rick Adelman wants to do; will McGrady start at the shooting guard or the small forward position? If he starts here, he will team with James to be a dynamic and explosive backcourt. McGrady and run alongside James and put pressure on teams up the court. If it’s not McGrady, then maybe Bonzi Wells or Luther Head will work as the shooting guard.

Both Wells and Head would definitely figure into the rotation at guard. This is the position that the Rockets are the deepest. Meanwhile, the loser of the James/Alston battle to be starting point guard will be the backup. Either way, you get a serviceable point guard off the bench that would be a great player off the bench. Meanwhile, watch out for veteran Steve Francis. Both the Knicks and the Trail Blazers gave up on him in the offseason, but Francis thinks he can be a big factor where it all began for him. If he can accept being a roleplayer, he could work out as a steal for this team. Bob Sura, Kirk Snyder, and rookie Aaron Brooks will all get a chance to make the team, but the Rockets need to trim the roster. Too many guards there for about six spots; and only four of those guys will get regular time.
Grade: B+

Frontcourt: More than likely, the guard situation will play itself out and lead to Tracy McGrady playing the small forward position with Shane Battier moving to power forward. The loss of Juwan Howard via trade means that they are even thinner at power forward. McGrady would be better served at the small forward position; he can run the floor and not worry about too much ball handling duties. The Rockets have a plethora of guards and there has to be someone there that can handle the ball. McGrady would do best getting set up for open looks and moves to the basket, something easiest for him from the small forward position. McGrady can score from anywhere on the court and is an underrated defender. Health might be an issue; he’s suffered a lot of nagging injuries lately. Shane Battier was one of the guys that were around the U.S.A. team when needing to qualify for the Olympics. That experience only further solidifies his abilities. The Rockets are aware that Battier is solid at all the fundamental parts of the game; they like to have Battier all over the court doing it all. Whether it’s rebounding, defending, or scoring, Battier does it all. Up front, Yao Ming has begun to assert himself, but injuries limited him last season. Rick Adelman will need to find ways to get Ming more involved; whether in his tight high post or down low.

The rotation is not a solid up front as it is at the guard position. The thing that hurts the Rockets is that mot of the guards they have on the roster cannot play up front. Chuck Hayes returns to the team as probably the top forward on the roster. He played regular minutes for the team off the bench and he will more than likely play behind Battier as the power forward. Former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Dikembe Mutumbo will back up Ming. The Rockets do not want Mutumbo to get too many minutes, but if he can fill in for Ming when he needs rest then the Rockets would be pleased with any production they could get from him. Watch out for forward Luis Scola; he was acquired from the Spurs in the offseason. Another Argentinean national team member, Scola could finally see time in Houston, something he could not get in San Antonio. He’s got some skills with the ball and could give them a good 15-20 minutes off the bench.
Grade: A-

Coach: Rick Adelman comes over after his last position rebuilding the Sacramento Kings and making them into a perennial contender. Adelman will attempt to do the same thing in Houston. He will more than likely get the offense through Yao Ming instead of Tracy McGrady. T-Mac will still be the top option, but Ming will dictate the offense; much like in Sacramento with Vlade Divac and later Brad Miller running the offense. Although Chris Webber was his top option, that ball always cycled through the center. Ming will get a lot more touches and get into the game earlier than he is used to. It will be beneficial. Adelman’s biggest test could be solidifying the crowded backcourt. If he can do that effectively and share minutes, Adelman has a chance to contend with the top teams in the Western Conference.
Grade: B+

Bold Predictions
Record: 49-33
Team MVP: Yao Ming
Overall Grade: A-
Notes: With all due respect to Tracy McGrady, this team’s success will depend on the big man in the middle. The team will rise and/or fall on Ming’s back. I truly believe that this is the season he really puts it all together. The Rockets and new head coach Rick Adelman plan to use Ming in different ways; from the traditional low post game to some high post passing, the team should use some different looks. Meanwhile, Tracy McGrady has to show the leadership to take this team on his back and get them over the hump. First, it will be about getting out of the quarterfinals in the Western Conference. Some of these bench pieces are questionable (Steve Francis, really?) but they are low-risk/high-reward type players. With as tough as the Western Conference is, the second round is not necessarily guaranteed. It comes down to Ming. He needs to dominate in the middle. He’s flashed signs of being able to handle the load, but he needs to be consistent and stay healthy. Should he be able to do both of those things, they should be formidable in the tough Western Conference.