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2007 NBA Season Preview – Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks
’06-’07 Record/Standing: 67-15 (.817); Southwest Division Champs
’06-’07 Postseason (if applicable): Lost in Western Conference Quarterfinals (4-2 to Golden State)
Coach (Record): Avery Johnson, 4th season (143-39)
Key Additions: G/F Eddie Jones (FA; Miami); (trade; Minnesota); G Trenton Hassell
Key Losses: SG Greg Buckner (trade; Minnesota); PF/C Austin Croshere (FA; Dallas)

We were all watching last spring. We all saw the Dallas Mavericks, the owners of the NBA’s best records during the 2006-2007 regular season, get bounced out of the playoffs but the bottom seed in the Western Conference. And while the Golden State Warriors moved on in the playoffs, the Mavericks were left with their tails between their legs wondering just exactly what happened. How could the team with the best record in the NBA lose to a team that squeaked into the postseason? Well, the Mavericks wanted to make some more changes; it’s not like this is a team that has just jumped into contention. The Mavs have been one of the favorites to win the NBA championship for the last few seasons; they have the reigning league MVP and a team that plays well on both sides of the court.

Where are they this season? Have they put that loss in the rear view mirror and made the decision to move forward? Does the pain and the disappointment linger? Can Dirk Nowitzki, the reigning league MVP, handle the prospects of even more pressure on his shoulders? Where does this team go from having the stigma of that postseason collapse? Maybe more importantly, will this team stay the same or will changes be made?

Projected Starting Lineup (’06-’07 Stats)
PG: Devin Harris (80 games, 10.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.7 apg)
SG: Jason Terry (81 games, 16.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 5.2 apg)
SF: Josh Howard (70 games, 18.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.8 apg)
PF: Dirk Nowitzki (78 games, 24.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 3.4 apg)
C: Erick Dampier (76 games, 7.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 0.6 apg)

Backcourt: Sometimes you can look at the Mavericks’ backcourt and think that they are incredibly talented and unable to matchup with. Then you see them in action and think that same thing; until you see a bad game or two in a row. Unfortunately for these guys, it happens more than you would hope. Point guard Devin Harris is a prime example of this. He’s young, incredibly fast with the ball in his hands, and he can defend on and off the ball. Unfortunately, he’s just as prone to have a 2-11, 6 turnover game as he is to having a great game. It’s the youth and inconsistency that the Mavericks could do without. Think Tony Parker when he first came into the NBA; Harris will get better, it’s just a matter of when. Then there’s Jason Terry; he’s a guy that can be a team’s top option, but like Harris he can be a boon or a liability. Like most good shooters, you want Terry to shoot out his problems, but he’s not the top option of the team and would be better waiting for his shots. With Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard on the team, Terry should be the team’s third option, there to add big shots and a good 10 to 15 points a game, nothing more.

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The rotation leaves a little to be desired, but they can get over 30 a game from both Harris and Terry anyway. The Mavs did go and get veteran Eddie Jones to strengthen the guard rotation. Jones is still a good defender, although I truly don’t know how much you can count on him anymore offensively. Also, Jerry Stackhouse is good off the bench as instant offense and can still get out on the break. In fact, I would actually argue that Stackhouse is a better option for the team than Jason Terry. Look for Jose Barea to get more minutes as they try to develop a player to come off the bench on those games that Harris struggles. Maurice Ager gave good minutes last year in limited action, so he’ll get on the court again it times.
Grade: B+

Frontcourt: Their two forwards are among the best in the league. While Dirk Nowitzki is the star, you have to notice that Josh Howard is coming into his own as a quiet superstar in the NBA. Howard stands as one of the more underrated players in the NBA. Howard goes under the radar because of that fact they he does not do anything on the floor flashy; he guards people, hits big shots, and does the little things that do not show up on the stats sheet. As the teams continue to focus on Nowitzki, Howard sneaks behind the defense and gets to the basket more often than they would like. It often takes more than a half in a single game for teams to adjust, and by then Howard’s already made you pay. Nowitzki is the reigning league MVP, but there are a ton of questions surrounding his leadership qualities and whether he can rise to the last level before superstardom. Physically, he is as talented as there is in the league. He can hit the outside shot with deadly accuracy and be competitive with the offense. You need a shot, he’ll hit it for you. He’ll never be an All-NBA defender, but he has worked hard to improve that aspect of his game. But questions remain: can he rebound effectively? Why does he disappear in big games? Those questions will need to be answered this year. Some have even suggested that he is not untouchable if the right deal for a trade comes through. Meanwhile, the Mavericks work with a combination of DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier. It usually depends on the matchup as to which center starts. Both are limited offensively; Dampier might score a little more, but both are there to be big bodies in the middle and play defense and rebound.

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Off the bench the Mavericks have a simple rotation. Jerry Stackhouse will rotate in as a small forward at times when the team is playing with Nowitzki as the center. If not Stackhouse, it will be Devean George in the game. George is veteran that gives the team solid minutes offensively and defensively. Nowitzki plays a lot, so the backup power forward spot was left to guys like Austin Croshere last year. With Croshere gone, the job will go to a rotation of unproven players; Brandon Bass and rookie Nick Fazekas. They will mostly get sparse minutes until one or the other steps in and gives good minutes. The person off the bench between Dampier and Diop will be the only major backup at center. DJ Mbenga could see time, but only in garbage time or in case of injury or limited personnel.
Grade: B+

Coach: Avery Johnson has been one of the best coaches in the NBA, but there are questions as to whether he can get it done when it counts. There is no question that he’s a great motivator and a good coach that knows the game very well, but the team needs him to get through to them a little more. As was the case with this team, they fell into a terrible matchup and could not overcome it despite what many would deem superior talent. Johnson needs to get the team at the right frame of mind because physically there are few teams that fit together so perfectly. If this season does not end with an NBA title, it could be conceivable, although unlikely, that Johnson could take the fall.
Grade: B

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Bold Predictions
Record: 58-24
Team MVP: Josh Howard
Overall Grade: A-
Notes: When it comes down to it, this is still a team that is better than most of the other teams in the NBA. Despite not making any real significant moves, you cannot expect this team to be done with their roster. For a team that could let Michael Finley and Steve Nash go, this is a team that can make moves when needed to get better. They still need a presence inside; the Warriors, a smaller team, actually proved that they lacked inside ability. They collapsed in zone and watched the Mavs falter. It’s obvious that either Erick Dampier or DeSagana Diop is not the answer in the middle. Even MVP Dirk Nowitzki does not like to go inside and score. They need someone to get down low and make plays. Until then, they will be a good team but run into difficulty with some athletic defensive teams. The playoffs are virtually a lock, but a deep run and a championship hinges on more improvement.